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The ADP National Employment Report shows Private Sector Employment Increased by 41,000 Jobs in December; Annual Pay was Up 4.4%.

Change by Establishment Size

• Small establishments: 9,000
  o 1-19 employees 4,000
  o 20-49 employees 5,000
• Medium establishments: 34,000
  o 50-249 employees 29,000
  o 250-499 employees 5,000
• Large establishments: 2,000
  o 500+ employees 2,000

After a horrific November, small businesses ended the year on a positive note. The big strength was in medium-sized employment, specifically businesses with 50-249 employees.

Median Change in Annual Pay

• Job-stayers 4.4%
• Job-changers 6.6%

“Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

In November, employers with 1-19 employees shed 44,000 employees. Employers with 2-49 employees shed an additional 52,000 employees.

The net small business loss in November was 96,000. So, some rebound from that demise was likely.

Looking ahead to 2026, I expect weakness everywhere. Next up, I will take a look at white collar services.

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