EC A Vaccine And The “New New Normal”

Of course, such also assumes you can get people to get vaccinated.

“While previous vaccination programs have spread over years and focused on specific demographics such as children or the elderly, governments are hoping to do something they never have done before and inoculate a majority of the population in a matter of months.

Even for rich nations with developed vaccination programs, that presents a host of problems including building new databases to track who is getting the shot, working out ways to encourage mass uptake among younger people, ensuring adequate supply and running large-scale inoculation centers where the shots can be safely and quickly administered.

Those challenges mean that even if a vaccine is soon approved, it could be many months before it is administered to enough people to ease the need for lockdown measures that have been recently reimposed across the West.” – WSJ

However, even if we assume we get an effective vaccine produced starting in January, AND we get everyone in the country vaccinated, it won’t change the math.

 

The New “New Normal”

Here is the problem. There is currently much hope that following the “pandemic,” the world will experience an explosion of growth. The issue is the “Old Normal,” as shown above, wasn’t all that great for the bottom 80% of the population.

The lockdowns accelerated the “work-from-home” mentality for many companies and employees. That trend will not reverse quickly, if ever.

Corporations are now seeing the benefit of reduced labor forces, less office space, and increased productivity through technology. All of these are significant “cost-savings” to the corporation’s bottom lines.

The consumer also will likely continue to do more things online. While travel will likely increase, it may be quite some time to see airlines, hotels, and rental car companies back to previous capacities. As Bloomberg noted in “Get Ready For The New Normal 2.0:”

“The U.S. economy post-Covid-19 will look a lot like the one that struggled to recover from the 2008-09 financial crisis –- only in some ways worse.

Growth will be disappointingly tepid after an initial rebound and, for a time at least, inflation dangerously lower and unemployment heartbreakingly higher than they were back then. Government debt -– and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet -– will be much bigger, while interest rates stay low.”

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William K. 1 month ago Member's comment

Quite an interesting arTIcle, but rather depressing, given that our federal bank has demonstrated a lack of making correct decisions. The fact is that the inflation primarily benefits that to 1%, or at best the top 5% And the fed certainly looks after it's own.