Good news, America!

The American Farm Bureau Federation reports that the cost of providing a traditional Thanksgiving turkey dinner for ten people in 2023 is 4.5% lower than in 2022. 

According to the Farm Bureau's annual shopping survey, the identical grocery items that cost $64.05 a year ago now cost $61.17. The AFBF noted:

"Although survey prices have begun to come down, food price inflation remains a real issue and serves as a constraint on the budget of all U.S. consumers. "

However...

As the Political Calculations blog highlights in the following chart, the cost of that traditional Thanksgiving dinner is still well elevated above what it was in 2020...

(Click on image to enlarge)

There's a lot of information in the chart showing how prices for the ten items of the AFBF's Thanksgiving dinner shopping list has changed in each year since 2020. We've used clustered columns along its horizontal axis to indicate the annual average price paid for each of the individual items, which are ranked according to their 2021 cost. We've also presented a cumulative cost curve for each year to show how each item adds to the total meal cost that is arrived at on the right-hand side of the chart.

Presenting the data this way lets us see that the increase in the cost of turkey is once again responsible for most of the year-over-year change in the cost of the meal.

Here, we see the cost of a 16-pound bird declined by 5.6% to $27.35 in 2023. That decline is attributable to the rebound from the negative impact of 2022's avian influenza epidemic on the supply on turkeys during 2022.

Unlike 2022, when only the price of cranberries fell from what they cost the previous year, 2023 saw a larger number of price declines among the items on the AFBF's shopping list.

In addition to turkey, the prices for milk, cranberries, pie shells, cubed stuffing, whipping cream, and green peas were lower than their 2022 prices. Altogether, these items saw their prices collectively fall by $3.18.

Meanwhile, the prices of the 1-pound veggie tray, rolls, sweet potatoes, and pumpkin pie mix rose by a combined $0.30.

The total net change is a reduction of $2.88, of which the $1.61 decline in the price of a 16-pound turkey is the biggest component, accounting for 56% of the year-over-year difference.

From 2011 through 2020, the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner held steady within a relatively narrow range between $46.90 (2020) and $50.11 (2015).

The cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner for ten people remains 30% higher than 2020's level, thanks mainly to President Biden's inflation.

AFBF concludes, "Despite challenges with inflation and the rising cost of food, farmers and ranchers are working hard each day to provide America with a safe and affordable food supply."

"Food security plays a significant role in national security, and an abundant and reliable food supply is essential for any free nation. 

So, this Thanksgiving, as you gather around the table with friends and family, let's also give thanks to the hard work of farmers and ranchers in providing our food and the national security and well-being that go with it."

Meanwhile, Democratic National Committee (DNC) chair Jaime Harrison wants you to be thankful for something else, posting on social media platform X:

"You want to know what I'm thankful for this year? ... Having a president who knows just how much lower costs will make a difference for families." 

Harrison also shared a picture featuring President Biden, accompanied by text stating, "Thanksgiving costs down this year from turkey to travel." 

You want to know what I'm thankful for this year?

Having a president who knows just how much lower costs will make a difference for families.pic.twitter.com/wqJCnNaIgL

— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) November 21, 2023

One X user asked: 

Is this a joke?

— Rudy Havenstein, Senior Markets Commentator. (@RudyHavenstein) November 22, 2023

The post was instantly ratioed as X users pointed out Democrats have "zero care or respect for their citizens," and all they do is "lie." 

One X user pointed out the strategy by Democrats:

raise prices 70%, drop them 10%, take credit, repeat. pic.twitter.com/iBeukG4Fr1

— Veruca Salty (@VerucaSalty76) November 21, 2023

Others explained how Thanksgiving costs are still well above 2019 levels. 

Despite the price drop this year, costs are still 25 percent higher than they were in 2019 ($48.91). Prices in 2022 were the highest in the survey’s history. This is called gaslighting. Prices dropped but you're still paying more.

— the truth is hard (@truthishard__) November 22, 2023

All lies pic.twitter.com/C8Igg0CzRy

— LittleDavidJr (@LittleDavidJr1) November 21, 2023

a Thanksgiving meal is still 25% higher than it was in 2019

— TOC (@Tom70715930) November 21, 2023

While Harrison is correct, costs are down, he failed to explain how much - yet another trick of the Democrat party.  

Harrison's ratioed post is yet more evidence the 'Bidenomic' narrative has failed. And average folks are fed up with lies. 

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