A Note On Initial Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims for last week were reported at 206,000 this morning. That is one of the lowest weekly readings during this expansion.

More significantly, the 4 week moving average is back below 10% off its low, within the range of typical noise:


And it is down -4.6% YoY, which as the below graph going back 50 years shows, is actually a quite positive reading:


I continue to expect a slowdown next year, so I am not expecting any substantial improvement in this number, but it is certainly not negative now.

This post is not an offer to buy or sell this security. It is also not specific investment advice for a recommendation for any specific person.


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