A Good Start To 2021: Weekly Nifty 9 Charts In Focus

The only indices to fall were those for Exports and Imports, and even those declines were minor.

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Meanwhile, the indices for Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs, and Supplier Deliveries all came in the top decile of readings of their respective histories. To summarize, overall conditions continued to improve with strong demand and production on the rise to meet that demand. There are some supply issues like low inventories and longer lead times, though and that’s contributing to sharply rising prices.

Research Report Insight #5

The NFP employment report for December showed a 140K decrease in total Nonfarm payrolls.

Some good news in the report came from previous months’ revisions. The change in total Nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised up by 44,000, from +610,000 to +654,000, and the change for November was revised up by 91,000, from +245,000 to +336,000. With these revisions, employment in October and November combined was 135,000 more than previously reported.

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Undoubtedly, the latest round of labor and employment data is being affected by the additional economic restrictions imposed over the last 6-7 weeks, across the nation. Nonetheless, the chart of percent job losses for each recession since WWII suggests that this is actually the fastest employment recovery since that time period. The jobs will come back, per the chart, they always do and it is just a matter of “by when”.

Research Report Insight #6

On a side note, because keep in mind that every significant market rally coming out of a recession has held “double-dip recession” and “bubble market” labels, Jeremy Grantham has offered his latest MARKET BUBBLE narrative titled, WAITING FOR THE LAST DANCE: The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-stage Major Bubble”.

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To summarize Grantham’s latest “bubble call”, as he has forecasted 20 of the last 2, here is what he says in his narrative:

“I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000.”

Grantham is an unabashed permabear; there is simply no other way to label him. If his latest piece scares the heck out of you, understand that listening to him over the last decade could have prevented you from missing out on a once in a lifetime bull market that proved to be the longest bull market in history!!

Not only that, but the guy’s calls are just as good as a coin flip really!

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