A Final Try At 4310?

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GDX (gold miners) (dly) 

For the past week, GDX has tried to hold on to a support level, tied down by one and perhaps two short-term cycles bottoming in the same time frame.  If this is correct, a short-term reversal is imminent, but the pullback into that low has affected the P&F pattern, suggesting that some rebuilding of the base may be needed.  This could limit the reversal to two or three points (GDX).  

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PAAS (dly)

The short-term pattern of PAAS is similar to GDX.  It, too has been trading in a tight range for the past few days and it, too, is ostensibly at a cycle low which is about to reverse and create a rebound in the price.  Like GDX, limited upside potential should be expected at this time (PAAS).

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BNO (Brent oil fund) dly

I have mentioned previously that BNO’s trend is a faithful adherent to its 50-dma.  Ever since a brief dip below it in August 2020 and a move back above it in September, BNO has trended higher.  Recently, a couple of tests of the MA were successful, but the negative divergence showing in the CCI suggests that it may soon be tested again.  If it holds, it could bring higher prices.  If not, a correction should start (BNO).

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UUP (dollar ETF) (dly) ($USD chart is not available from this data provider)

UUP made a low at the beginning of the year, bounced, retested it, and bounced again.  This looks more like a holding pattern than a base formation, but it is too soon to know for certain.  Looking at the $USD P&F pattern, it is ambiguous, as well.  The index created a top distribution pattern at the 100 level which has been satisfied – for now.  The current formation could be only a holding pattern, but the dollar would have to print 88 in order to suggest that it is in a long-term downtrend which could take it lower (UUP).  

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Summary

While the DOW may already have started an intermediate correction, SPX could not quite do the same on its last dip.  It was rescued by a strong NDX which may only just now be reaching an intermediate top.  We need to see how much damage is done by the next down-phase of the short-term cycle to determine if all indexes are finally in sync to participate in such a correction.  

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The above comments, as well as those made in the daily updates and the Market Summary about the financial markets, are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles. ...

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