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In March 2025, we published our 2025 Q1 earnings surprise candidates based on StarMine predictive analytics. Using the Russell 1000 Index as our universe, our earnings surprise predictions scored 60% correct.

The StarMine SmartEstimate®  is a weighted average of analyst estimates, with more weight given to more recent estimates and more accurate analysts. Our research has shown that when the SmartEstimate® differs significantly from the consensus (I/B/E/S Mean), the Predicted Surprise accurately predicts the direction of earnings surprises 70% of the time. When significant Predicted Surprise for revenue is also present for the period, the accuracy improves to 78%.

Since 2011 Q4, we’ve posted our earnings surprise candidates for earnings beats and misses. The running total from 2011 Q4 through 2025 Q1 of S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates is 68.5% and 15.8% for companies that missed. Over this same period, the LSEG Proprietary Research team’s positive surprise candidates have been correct 85.7% of the time and correctly called 66.9% of negative surprise candidates.

Using SmartEstimate® and Predicted Surprise data, we highlighted 10 companies with a high probability of reporting 2025 Q1 earnings surprises in the direction we called — five likely to beat the analysts’ consensus estimate and another five likely to fall short.

StarMine 2025 Q1 Russell 1000 Positive Earnings Surprise Results:

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StarMine 2025 Q1 Russell 1000 Negative Earnings Surprise Results:

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