The Economic Activity Composite (EAC), a proprietary multi-variable composite of mostly market-based variables, represents a leading measure of economic activity within the United States. 

An important sub-component of the Economic Activity Composite is confidence. Confidence fell sharply in August as trade worries, the global economy, as well as numerous other factors shook consumers for the first time in many years. Confidence fell to its lowest level since early 2019. Lots of investors say, big deal, confidence is strong enough and will not falter. 

The computer, however, disagrees. It shows us that the bull phase in confidence is 90 months old. It has not been in bear phase since 2012. The bull phases BuST, a standardized measure against all previous bull cycles, is 3.03. In other words, the current bull cycle is extremely stretched and will likely reverse in 2019 or 2020. This is not opinion but rather probability basis analysis, so waive that bullish flag carefully. 

Confidence Cycle (CE LTCO Matrix Line 103)

What happens when the confidence flips from a bull to bear cycle? Gold rallies. This is not an opinion but rather a fact. If confidence falters, a high probability outcome, gold will smash through the roof. Subscribers should be tracking this very closely as the time to get aggressive gold & silver is approaching. If you have questions, now is the time to ask. 

Confidence Oscillator & Gold

(Click on image to enlarge)