Atlanta Fed nowcast cut from 0.4% to 0.2% q/q SAAR, Goldman Sachs from 3.25% to 2.27%. This revises the graph in yesterday’s post.

Figure 1: GDP (black), implied GDP from Atlanta Fed 10/19 nowcast (red triangle), 10/27 nowcast (dark red triangle), IHS-MarkIt (sky blue square), Bloomberg consensus (brown square), Goldman Sachs 10/26 tracking forecast (inverted pink triangle) 10/27 tracking forecast (inverted dark pink triangle), and mean forecast from WSJ October survey (green line). Levels calculated using reported growth rates and latest GDP for Q2. Source: Atlanta Fed, IHS-Markit, Bloomberg, Goldman-Sachs, WSJ October survey, and author’s calculations. 

The Bloomberg consensus of 10/26 was not changed, while the IHS-MarkIt nowcast rose from 1.5% to 1.6% q/q SAAR – small enough I did not plot the new implied level.