Unemployment Claims Dip After Rising For Two Weeks

Unemployment claims are down across the board except for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Claims (PEUC). But that's a bigger problem than it looks.

Initial Unemployment Claims

Initial state unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted level of 712,000 for the week ending November 28.

Continued Unemployment Claims

Continued state unemployment Claims in 2020 Dec 3 Report

Continued claims decline again but the numbers are deceptive. State claims fall as benefits expire

Continued claims, like Initial claims, are seasonally adjusted. The rest of the numbers are not adjusted.

Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Claims (PEUC)

PEUC Claims in 2020 Dec 3 Report

PEUC claims have risen every week since August. PEUC benefits kick in after people have exhausted regular state benefits

PEUC claims lag continued claims by a week, They are not seasonally adjusted. 

Despite the lags and the seasonal adjustment mix, you can get a better feel for the true state of affairs by adding PEU claims to continued claims

Progress in continued claims is not as good as it looks. But none of it matches the BLS unemployment reports.

PUA Claims

Primary PUA Claims in 2020 Dec 3 Report

PUA claims cover part-time workers and self-employed. This program is rife with fraud, double-counting, and reporting errors. 

All Continued Claims in 2020 

All continued claims is the total of everything above except initial claims but the continued claims portion is not seasonally adjusted. 

Since it contains PUA claims this number is also rife with fraud, double-counting, and reporting errors.

Expiring Benefits 

The PEUC and PUA programs expire on December 26. 

Expect Congress to have a package by then, but the details are subject to negotiation. 

Democrats and Republicans have been bickering over this since September.

For discussion, please see Desire to Reach a Deal and Doing It are Two Different Things.

Disclaimer: The content on Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis site is provided as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including ...

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