Headline data for the American Trucking Association (ATA) and the CASS Freight Index show that truck volumes improved but show the year-over-year growth deep in contraction.

Analyst Opinion of Truck Transport

The CASS index is deeply in contraction year-over-year whilst the ATA index is barely in contraction year-over-year.

The CASS index is inclusive of rail, truck, and air shipments. The ATA truck index is inclusive of only trucking industry member movements (ATA's tonnage data is dominated by contract freight).

I put a heavier weight on the CASS index year-over-year which is consistent with rail and ocean freight. It is not logical that truck freight goes up when industrial production and ocean freight decline - not to mention the continuing effects of the trade war and the coronavirus shutdown.

Econintersect tries to validate truck data across data sources. It appears this month that the truck employment rate of growth continues to slow. Please note using BLS employment data in real-time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted (sometimes significantly). Additionally, Econintersect believes that the BLS is not capturing all truck employment.

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ATA Truckin

ATA's June truck tonnage increased 8.7% in June after falling 1% in May. June's tonnage is 1.3% below June 2019.

Said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:

Not surprisingly, as more states lifted restrictions in June, truck tonnage was robust. While the gain in June was the single best month since January 2013, the solid gain was not enough to put tonnage back to pre-pandemic levels, but it is close. I am hearing good anecdotal freight reports for July, but I am concerned that freight could slow as more states reinstate restrictions due to increasing Coronavirus cases.

ATA Truck tonnage this month

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source: ATA

CASS FREIGHT INDEX REPORT

The following was reported by CASS:

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Source