Investors Reacting Positively To The Chemical Makers

Finding bargains in this market is becoming more and more difficult and the few groups that are currently under accumulation are the ones that are relatively undervalued and that also pay a dividend, such as food producers and chemical makers. Today, the Materials etf (XLB) was pushed to a new high mainly by the action in the chemical stocks. (Disclosure: I'm not a personal fan of many of these companies, particularly Dow Chemical and Monsanto, but I feel that I do have a fiduciary duty to mention them.) The following chemical stocks hit new highs today and are noted along with their current price (to the nearest dollar), price-to earnings ratio (P/E), and dividend yields (D/Y): Dow Chemical (DOW, $52; P/E = 13; D/Y = 2.8%), Celanese (CE, $63; P/E = 9; D/Y = 1.6%), Du Pont (DD, $69; P/E = 22; D/Y = 2.6%), Westlake Chemical (WLK, $81; P/E = 17; D/Y = 0.6%). All of these sport bullish charts and as long as the market continues to rally, so should these.



1:55 pm ET: Intraday support/resistance:
SPX 1909.75/1917.25
DTX 805.5/810.5
DJIA 16620/16680
Nasdaq 4229/4245
RUT 1134.25/1142.75
VIX 11.4/12 (VIX under 12 is contrarian)
Trin range: 0.75 - 0.9 (bullish)
Average VWAPs: +69/-50 (bulls still trying to stay on top)

Late-day correction: Transports *NOT* showing signs of fatigue

The mid-morning slump in the Dow Transport Index (DTX) looked like the beginning of the Sell in May scenario but a further sell-off didn't happen. In fact, buyers jumped back in and managed to push both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the DTX to all-time highs for the fifth day in a row. What's clear is that the bulls are having a big ol' party but why that's so is slightly mystifying.

Sure, the market-leading DTX continues to march higher (a good sign for rally continuation) but it's doing so on light volume--not that it's a big deal. A bigger deal, though, is the fact that the volatility index (VIX) is below 12. Historically, whenever it's fallen below this level, the market has turned around. But--and this is a big but--it does not necessarily mean that a market correction is imminent for the VIX has shown that it can stay at low levels for a while (a month or even more). What this should tell you is that it is definitely a great time to buy long-term portfolio protection such as put options on index tracking stocks (QQQ, SPY, DIA) or to begin lightening up on positions that have enjoyed big gains. The added bonus in buying options right now is that options are cheap because of the low volatility. Don't wait too long, though, because volatility can reverse on a dime.


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