Trade Deficit Surges During The Recession
The trade balance hit -$63.6 billion (monthly, seasonally adjusted) in July. The trade balance has been deteriorating since the recession began, in contrast to what usually happens — an improvement in the trade balance, as imports decline with a decline in domestic economic activity.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Figure 1: Trade balance of goods and services (blue), in millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted, on a balance of payments basis. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray; assumes last recession ended in April. Source: Census via FRED, NBER, author’s calculations.
So another stylized fact bites the dust during the Trump administration.
And, pretty unambiguously, the trade deficit has increased since Mr. Trump took office.
Disclosure: None.