Tips From Top Forecaster: Existing Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders

Tuesday (September 22) Existing Home Sales for August 

The Bloomberg consensus is  6.01m(e) v 5.86m prior.
 Another increase in Existing Home Sales would be coherent with the bounce in Pending Home Sales. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) noted: “The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.”

In this context, It would be coherent if EHS finally catch up with PHS as suggested by the chart below. See my complete preview here.

Friday (September 25th)Durable Goods Orders for August  

The Bloomberg consensus is MoM: +1.1%(e) v +1.4%.
 Boeing says it booked eight new orders in August, including five for its beleaguered 737 Max. However, it had 20 cancellations during the same month, including 17 737 Max (implying a figure of -12 for net orders). It is the seventh month in a row that cancellations outpaced new orders.

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