US Markets

• S&P 500 Futures +1.25 points
• 10-Year US Treasury 2.09%
• Dollar Index 97.19
• Oil $59.78
• VIX 12.58

International Trading

• Japan Nikkei -0.69%
• Shanghai Composite -0.16%
• Hong Kong HSI +0.23%
• South Korea KOSPI +0.45%
• UK FTSE +0.26%
• Germany DAX – Flat

Rate Watch

Suddenly the CME Group FedWatch tool is now suggesting a 70% chance of 25 basis point rate cut on July 31 down from 97% last week. Meanwhile, the odds of 50 basis point rate cut increased to 30% from 3% last week. Interesting, to say the least. I must have missed something somewhere along the way that these odds have changed so rapidly.

Big Day for Data

July 16 will be a big day for economic data as the second quarter data stream winds down. Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, Business Inventory, and Industrial Production.

Meanwhile, the Germany ZEW Business survey came worse than expected. Current conditions came in at -1.1 versus estimates of 5, while Business expectations came in at -24.5 versus estimates for -22.

Trading Session for July 16

The S&P 500 is pointing to a roughly flat opening on July 16. However, the index will be running up against an uptrend today, so that will either push the index higher or lower. That trend line should act as strong support and help to drive the index higher, towards my target of 3,055.

JPMorgan (JPM)

JPMorgan reported robust results on July 16, easily beating estimates on both the top and bottom lines. However, the stock is falling following those results. However, according to Breifing.com, the company lowered its net interest income outlook, and that could be what is weighing on the shares.  For now, resistance appears to be around $117. However, there is an uptrend in the stock that has been in place since the December lows. It should help to limit the downside in the equity..

Tesla (TSLA)

Tesla’s stock is falling some this morning, testing the break out late yesterday afternoon at $250. The company has updated pricing and variants of its Model S/X/3.  Anyway, I would think that $250 should offer strong support for TSLA on its way to around $260.

Apple (AAPL)

Apple continues to be on a path higher towards $209. The stock is in a very well defined trading channel.

AMD (AMD)

AMD is on the cusp of that major break out we have been watching at $34.50. That is likely to set up a push towards $36.15.

Netflix (NFLX)

I will be watching Netflix closely today after two fragile days. The company is reporting results tomorrow night after the close. The low $360 region has acted as support/resistance on a few occasions, so we should see a bounce back to the high $370 ahead of results.

Have a great day.