“The Eerie Calm In Global Markets” (Beware!)

  • The recent shift in Fed rhetoric … does it really mark a policy shift?
  • Market history update
  • Bad News Sells!

Randall Forsyth
The Modern Day “Mikey”

Randall Forsyth, Barron’s editorial writer and chief contributor to the “Up and Down Wall Street” column, is a modern day “Mikey.” You all remember Mikey? He was a 3 or 4-year-old toddler feature with what appeared to be his two older brothers in a Life Cereal commercial that first appeared in 1972 (apologies to my readers who are not old people). Mikey’s main claim to fame as a potential cereal tester (according to his brothers) was that “he hates everything.” Ergo, if Mikey liked it, the new, “supposed to be good for you,” cereal was fit for human consumption and the two older brothers would eat it. Lo and behold, “he liked it!”

Market (and Mikey) History Update

Our latter day Mikey doesn’t “hate” everything. He is merely unhappy with everything the market and economy presents him. He finds nothing to like about the current market or economy and has been in that mode since my first publication of kortsessions.com in February of 2013. That’s six years of being critical of a market that has doubled in price (currently within 4.7% of its record all-time high) with an economy that has produced record employment and, at current writing, a 4% unemployment rate. Here is a sampling from February, 2014, “January Goes Off Script.” My counterpoint at the time was titled “What planet does Randall Forsyth come from?”  It posited that Forsyth had missed the bigger picture and the message given by the market that we had definitively broken out of a 13-year trading range to new all-time highs on the S&P 500, and that we could easily be embarking on a new secular bull market a la 1982 to 2000, 10-bagger on that index. It is worth noting that in my “What planet” post the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was trading at a 2.66% yield. Today’s quote is 2.654%. The more things change, the more they stay the same. This includes Mr. Forsyth’s view of the world.

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