Market Commentary: Markets Can't Keep Session Highs, Close Mixed

Written by Gary

Markets closed early in accordance to Holiday schedules. During the last several minuted the averages suffered a -0.4% drop that recovered 0.2% at the close. Holiday market traffic is hard to judge what is the 'real flavor' of the investors thinking. But it was obvious that some investors decided to jump ship at least for the duration of the Xmas Holidays.

By 1 pm the averages closed below the session highs to mixed or flat status.

We will have to wait until Friday to see if the Santa Claus rally is going to continue. Everyone have a safe and prosperous Holiday.

Our medium term indicators are leaning towards sell portfolio of non-performers at the close and the session market direction meter is 45 % Bullish climbing from 40% at the opening. We remain mostly conservatively bullish, neutral in other words. Right now now I am getting very concerned any downtrend could get very aggressive in the short-term and any volatility may also promote sudden reversals. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at +9.92. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period and I hope you have returned your 'dogs' to the pound.

Having some cash on hand now is not a bad strategy as market changes are happening everyday. As of now, I do not see any leading indicators that are warnings of a 'long-term' reversal in the near-term. There may be one later in 2015, but any market fluctuations we see now are more of a internal market rectification than a bear market. members' sentiments are 64 % Bearish.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 53.6 % bullish with the status at BearConfirmed. (Chart Here ) I expect a market reversal at or before ~25.0 should the markets start to descend. Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at +30.78. (Chart Here)But anything below -30 / -40 is a concern of going deeper. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. NYSE % of stocks above 200 DMA Index ($NYA200R) is at53.00 %. (Chart Here) The next support is ~37.00, ~25.00 and ~15.00 below that. December, 2011 was the last time we saw numbers in the 20's. NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 58.79. (Chart Here) Next stop down is ~57, then ~44, below that is where we will most likely see the markets crash. S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 74.80. (Chart Here) In support zone and rising. ~62, ~57, ~45 at which the markets are in a full-blown correction. 10 Year Treasury Note Yield Index ($TNX) is at 22.64. (Chart Here) Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 71.83. (Chart Here) NYSE Composite (Liquidity) Index ($NYA) is at 10,971. (Chart Here) Markets move inverse to institutional selling. We are above the resistance (10,301) but is this a test of the next resistance (triple top) at ~11,109, watch to see if these numbers decline back down. Next stop down is 10600, 9750, then 9250, and 8500.

The DOW at 1:00 is at 18030 up 6 or 0.03%. (Historical High 18,086.24)

The SP500 is at 2082 down 0.29 or -0.01%. (Historical High 2,087.56)

SPY is at 207.84 up 0.02 or 0.01%.

The $RUT is at 1207 up 4 or 0.36%.

NASDAQ is at 4773 up 8 or 0.17%. (Historical High 5132.52)

NASDAQ 100 is at 4283 down 4 or -0.09%.

$VIX 'Fear Index' is at 14.43 down 0.37 or -2.50%Bullish to Neutral Movement

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and sideways.

WTI oil is trading between 57.14 (resistance) and 55.08 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 55.26(Chart Here)

Brent Crude is trading between 61.62 (resistance) and 59.38 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 59.88(Chart Here)

Gold fell from 1181.12 earlier to 1172.80 and is currently trading down at 1174.60. The current intra-session trend is down and sideways(Chart Here)

Dr. Copper is at 2.846 falling from 2.872 earlier. (Chart Here)

The US dollar is trading between 90.32 (highest since 2006 and 89.85 is a very substantial resistance) and 90.07 and is currently trading up at 90.25, the bias is currently trending sideways and quiet(Chart Here) Resistance made in Aug., 2013 (~85.00) has been broken and now is support. This support has gotten much stronger since August, 2014 and isn't likely to fall easily. The next resistance is at ~88.85 set in June, 2010.

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