Market Briefing For Monday, Sept. 9

Stocks advanced as desired and were further buoyed by Chairman Powell's comments in Zurich, which could be interpreted either way as regards prospects for another Fed rate cut or not at the upcoming and hence controversial FOMC meeting.  

Perhaps we'll get some market jitters ahead of that, after S&P thrusts a bit higher earlier in the new week; since it's 100% expected to be a cut; and to a degree is discounted by under-the-belt action. Also it can be argued that doing another cut at this time isn't very wise.   

Mr. Powell it perfectly clear that the Fed's role is non-political (so says he); but aimed at sustaining long-term expansion (ironically while also acknowledging things slowing since the middle of 'last' year, which for sure is in-line with my viewpoint about sluggish economic activity).  

However I also expected rotational market corrections for another key reason: the technology transition year (5G holding back almost all new projects and increasing development and rollout costs in initial stages) which we're slowly coming to the end of. I should point-out 'costs' for a number of companies will be ramping higher over the next year or two also; but the realization of progress and change will be stimulating as it starts to identify the leading versus lagging players in many fields.

It is already evident that despite protestations here in Berlin by the top guys at Mercedes and BMW, they both lag Porsche-VW-Audi in the rollout speed and supercharger network for Elective Vehicles (EV) as this evolves.  

  

While in the U.S. the media focus is versus Tesla (natch) the real competition across a broad price spectrum is what VW brings for instance (and on a shared platform even if they won't acknowledge it). I'll have more on automotive during the week (focus later in IFA this year); however got a few hints (that we generally knew) emphasized in the first day or two.    

Important to me the next day; was that Qualcomm's President made a strong point that 'they' had captured 20 of 22 largest cellular markets globally for 5G of course, which (in my interpretation) leaves Huawei with just 2 (both are the only notable 5G processor manufacturers for cellular; as Intel continues; but not in the cellular market).    

Of course it is not 'just' cellular; note that Huawei did cut a deal with Audi related to onboard infotainment systems; so it's potentially troubling to those believing other means can be used to enter (hack?) into networks.  

  

In sum: huge budgets in research and deployment crimp earnings in the shorter term; but enhance the vision of future profitability for many.  

IFA is now the largest platform for insight into information; and while of course CES is the best known (and more highly automotive); it tends to be aimed more at marketing the products than exploring the future, which it does; but here (for Germany) is key to maintaining (or can be argued recapturing) its engineering leadership.  

 A lot of what I'll see is cutting-edge; and a lot of European start-up's at this point have interesting ideas, many of which won't be successful at the same time those that rely on the availability of 5G have a shot for acceptance, if they have enough seed-money to hold out long enough it seems. 

  

The direction of global cutting-edge technological development really is focused on 5G now; and the related 'Edge' computing (that includes low-latency everything from thru-put to backhaul) as it evolves. 

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