E Market Briefing For Monday, Jan. 21

Davos will dominate financial media in the week ahead, with perhaps a few interesting observations about the risks of monetary expansion and the struggles of the banking system (especially in Europe), besides what will be requisite discussions about the economic disparities in society. 

It's probably to much to wish (because it's reality); but Davos should be focused on 'global risk profiles', related to everything from of course easy money, to rising sea levels, and how that alone is going to 'water down' long-term planning at least for retirement on the coasts; but perhaps fuel a boom of inland growth. And it should notbe focused on our American political chaos; but perhaps consider the real importance China/USMCA deals have for growth; especially if China retreats a bit from BRI projects (China's own debt picture might inhibit more nations entering debt traps, if they're not really able to aggressively finance Belt & Road Initiatives). 

On climate change and sea levels, it amazes me how many continue to invest in pricey coastal Florida homes 'as if' they think something will be effectively done to hold back rising tides. Yesterday a Tampa newspaper referred to the McKinsey consulting group talking about coastal property prices declining 10-15% in this decade due to rising tides; and 30-40% the next decade. Well fine; except I doubt it will be linear like that; merely according to tidal shifts; especially because of insurance 2.0 changes (a plan is developing now that will really make coastal insurance impossible to obtain absent an affordable fallback on National Flood insurance that a majority of Americans don't wish to subsidize for those buying or building in areas that everything suggests significant flooding or undermining). It may be though that this creates a huge boom for 'inland' home builders.   

When a single big flood or surge exceeds anything seen since (Sandy); a super-storm (and that's especially if rising tides occur without a hurricane) insurance will soar. (Already it is impossibly priced for many, so they self-insure which you can only do if there's no mortgage.) I suspect that there will be a point where investors won't touch anything basically East of US1 on the East Coast of Florida.  

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