Will This 11.5% Yield Make You Glad Or Mad?

A reader recently emailed me to ask my thoughts on a private investment opportunity that would pay him 10% in the first year and 16% to 20% in years two and three – with low risk.

I am not permitted to give personalized advice, so I didn’t analyze the deal. But I reminded him that there’s no such thing as a “low risk” double-digit yield.

If it was truly low risk, the company wouldn’t have to pay 10% to borrow cash. It could pay 5% or even 7%.

Creating_Business_From_Scratch

Remember this: the higher the yield, the higher the risk. There are no exceptions, no matter what a slick salesperson says.

It’s true in the markets as well. Stocks with double-digit yields are riskier than lower-yielding companies, like Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO).

Keep that in mind this week as I look at a stock yielding 11.5%. Its dividend has been stable, and the company can actually afford to pay such a high yield.

Gladstone Capital (Nasdaq: GLAD) is a business development company (BDC) that lends money to a wide variety of small businesses with sales of $20 million to $150 million.

Its portfolio of companies includes…

  • Alloy Die Casting Corp. – A Buena Park, California, maker of aluminum and zinc products
  • Lignetics Inc. – A manufacturer and distributor of wood pellets and fire logs for home and industrial heating based in Sandpoint, Idaho
  • Sunshine Media Holdings – A media company focused on healthcare and financial services publications. Sunshine is located in Chattanooga, Tennessee.

Gladstone had a rough year in 2008. The company had to slash its monthly dividend in half in April 2009 (right at the market bottom). Since then, it has paid the same $0.07 per share dividend every month. It also previously cut its dividend in 2003.

But over the past seven years, Gladstone has kept its dividend stable without reaching to pay it. The company’s net investment income was $0.84 per share last year, exactly enough to cover its dividends.

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NII is the most accurate measure of a BDC’s cash flow.

In the first two quarters of Gladstone’s fiscal 2016 (ending in September), the company’s NII was $0.21 each quarter – again equal to the dividend.

Since 2010, Gladstone has consistently made enough to at least pay the dividend… sometimes even a few cents per share more.

Gladstone_Capitals_NII_Covers_Dividend

The company’s NII is fairly predictable because Gladstone lends money to borrowers. Those loans have a specific payment tied to them, so management knows how much cash is coming in the door during any given month or quarter. The main variable is the possibility of a company being unable to pay its loan.

Is the Reward Worth the Risk?

I have to penalize Gladstone for its dividend cut in 2009. But other than that, the only real risk to the dividend would be a big macro shift like we saw during the Great Recession.

While I believe its dividend is fairly safe, the same can’t be said about Gladstone’s share price. I’m not saying the share price is going lower, just acknowledging the risk.

The stock is down about 30% over the past 2 1/2 years. Back in January when the market sold off hard, Gladstone Capital fell 32% in a few days. It rebounded within two months, but it can be volatile.

As far as the dividend is concerned though, Gladstone is fairly safe.

Dividend Safety Rating: B

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