Today the proverbial whatever hit the fan. The trigger for the US stock plummet was a very large number of new jobless applicants last week, of 861,000 unemployment registration, against an estimate of only 773,000, but in fact, the rout began in foreign markets overnight. Mighty Walmart WMT failed to meet estimates of earnings and warned about sales flattening this year. It certainly is hard to hold onto shares that have risen astronomically since last March. It is hard to stick it out when Robinhood and Reddit are under federal investigation for misleading stock investors on how free their trading and advice really was. More and more, stock websites and even the covers of Barron's weekly are serving us with ads, not advice. It is tough remaining invested when fear of inflation and recession alternate in the news. You need the gumption to stay with classic stocks and bonds when the easy money seems to be coming from bitcoin. You need a long view to continue to hold equities and bonds when guru Bill Gross grossed $10 mn from the GameStop buying panic (according to Citywire in London today) and none of us ever risked that much money in a single position. London was hit by a rise in sterling.

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Moreover, there is even worse news from the WHO over the pandemic we are suffering from, not that new variants are popping up all over, known for 10 days, without any certainty about how contagious mutations are, but that the vector between the bats in their caves and the Wuhan market where the infection hit humans probably was bunnies. Chinese people eat rabbits, as do many Europeans, like the French. It would have been more comforting if the vector would have been something only Chinese people eat like dogs or badgers. (We never ate bunny because our Paris upstairs neighbor, my daughter's pal, had an incontinent pet rabbit and because I have a lingering fear of non-kosher critturs.)

Anyway, there are reports and news today from Canada from our companies.

*Canadian fertilizer and agriculture inputs maker and vendor Nutrien reported a nifty quarter and forecasts after the market closed yesterday. Before the fan was hit NTR rose 4.5% to a year's high of $58. While this did not last the night, it opened up 0.2% and its buy rating was maintained by CFRA. But it is now down 0.3% at $55.68.

NTR earned US$ 316 mn in Q4, vs a prior-year loss of $48 mn or 55¢/sh beating by 15¢. Sales were $4.05 bn. The adjusted net was 24¢ as farm markets improved and were expected to continue doing so. The quarterly divie was raised by 1¢ to 46¢ payable April 15 ($1.84 annually) and a 5% buyback promised as well. The metrics were good. It increased its non-working capital and free cash flow hit $6.8 bn.

Full-year sales were up 4% from the prior year at $20.908 bn, and net earnings for the year were down 54% to $459 mn from $962 mn. Sales volumes rose 16% for the full year. The US helped with consolidated earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortization up 10.6% to $1.08 bn at selling points and over $1.2 bn via digital sales, beating the year's target of $500 mn and quadruple the total in 2019. Worldwide total EBITDA was up only 9.7% to $768 mn. Free cash flow in 2020 hit $1.8 bn or $2.4 bn including non-cash operating working capital. Potash did best thanks to huge demand, the 2nd highest quarter ever, up 48% from prior Q4 but not as helpful to EBITDA. Potash prices were 25% lower while costs were only $4/tonne lower at $59. The conference call was all about Q4 because it is felt to be a herald for a brilliant 2021. NTR forecast earnings of $2.05-2.75 this year on improved potash demand, and adjusted EBITDA of $4-4.5 bn. NTR also launched a carbon capture program that will boost yields and support growers.

*Also up north, Cameco is celebrating “a fully and finally resolved tax ruling”. The Canadian Supreme Court ruled in CCJ's favor in a lawsuit against their IRS (Canadian Revenue Agency) over fines and disputes from 2003 to 2018 when CRA hit CCJ. CCJ will get C$5.5 mn in refunds plus interest, plus $10.25 mn for legal fees, plus $17.9 mn for disbursement costs from prior rulings. It is unclear what will happen to the C$785 mn the CRA still holds to secure earlier fines but in theory CCJ will get that too. While that loot is satisfying, does not get Cameco off the hook. It already has ~$785 mn in cash. It doesn't need cash but needs higher uranium spot prices because its mines are shut because of the virus It needs to gain from selling its uranium stockpile. Your nuclear nut hangs in despite a 3% stock drop.

*It is doing better than Energy Fuels of Canada, UUUU, my buy yesterday, which fell 10% at the open and is still down 8.9% to $5.48. I paid $6. It is in rare earths as well as nuclear fuel.

Brazil

*After posting another inconclusive report on its move to consolidate operations and reporting yesterday, Brazilian Cosan fell another 2.7% in the pre-market. CZZ should stop this Mardi Gras of shows and produce some real data.

*Nokia NOK did another big deal for Brazilian Telecom, again using radio for 4-5G but its share price is still fragile and falling. It was the only ADR caught up in the Reddit buying. It has to compete with Chinese offerings which are cheap but come with political risks. It may restore its dividend. Meanwhile, heavy selling may provide an opportunity to brave investors writes Phil Martinelli on Seekingalpha.com. It did a deal yesterday with a Finnish partner.

Netherlands

*CBOE (my way of playing options) expects to see sustainable growth from EU business conducted in Amsterdam, according to CEO David Howson today. It helps the Dutch market replace Brexit-hit London. The operations are mostly fintech based so there is not much employment gain.

*Royal Dutch Shell fell 3.3% today in European trading. Oil loses value as Saudi Arabia ups supply. RDS-B.

Chips with everything

*Chipmakers in Texas are now shut in and this should help our Tower Semiconductor of Israel. TSEM opened at $32.66 but now is down 2.91% at $31.17 with “a bearish chart pattern”. Automakers are hard-pressed to procure chips.

*At a p/e ratio estimated at 36, NIO, our 100 bagger (mostly sold) is one of the chip buyers looking for supplies, but it has an edge, being sort of Chinese, or a negative as China wants to bar the use of Taiwan semiconductors. NIO is a Chinese variable interest entity from the Cayman Islands, with about 10% of its shares now controlled by the municipality of Hefei, where its car plants are. Its China side is controlled by 2 outfits from Shanghai and Beijing after it raised its capital. It should be able to expand its production, R&D, and profits but like many PRC entities, it faces potential government risks.

*The biggest fall in a large-cap today was AAIGF, AIA Group Hong Kong, down 7.1% at the open because of a lower Moody's rating. AAGIY.

Commodities

*There is a lithium bubble coming as jv partners SoQuiMich (SQM of Chile sold) and Wesfarmers will build with a 50,000 metric tons battery-grade lithium hydroxide mine in Oz, up from a prior target of 45,000, coming in early 2024.

*SPDR Gold GLD rose to $166.75 after allegedly forming a death cross Weds. But there were few other winners. This is not yet a market panic but profit-taking abounds especially in the drug sector, where it is too mobile to cover.