What To Watch In Under Armour Earnings Report

Under Armour (UA, UAA) is scheduled to report results of its first fiscal quarter before the market open on Thursday, May 2, with a conference call scheduled for 8:30 am EDT. What to watch for:

1. GUIDANCE: In February, Under Armour backed its fiscal 2019 guidance calling for EPS of 31c-33c, against analysts' current consensus of 34c, with revenue up approximately 3%-4%, reflecting relatively flat results for North America and a low double-digit percentage rate increase in the international business. Gross margin is expected to improve approximately 60 to 80 basis points compared to 2018 adjusted gross margin, it said. For Q1, Under Armour forecast a loss per share of about (1c) on "relatively flat to slightly down" revenue, against analysts' current consensus of no profit and $1.18B, respectively. Gross margin for the quarter is expected to be up about 20-30bps vs. last year.

Under Armour previously stated that it expects revenue to return to a low double-digit growth rate by 2023, with EPS up at a five-year CAGR of approximately 40%. Q1 consensus expectations for Under Armour are "at least achievable" and management should maintain fiscal 2019 guidance, Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy said recently.

2. RESTRUCTURING UPDATE: Last year, Under Armour approved a restructuring plan to better align its financial resources to support the company's efforts as the consumer landscape shifts. As part of the plan, Under Armour is cutting about 2% of its global workforce of 15,000. The company said it is streamlining "all aspects" of the organization to improve business operations. In February, Under Armour said it did not see a new restructuring plan or further charges in 2019. Under Armour is "growing up" with a renewed focus on driving profitability and return on invested capital, Citi analyst Paul Lejuez said. With just a 3.4% EBIT margin in 2018, the company has the opportunity to recapture 600 basis points in EBIT margin over the next several years, he added.

3. COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT: Analysts and investors will listen for comments from the company on how it views the current athletic environment. Athletic wear maker lululemon (LULU) announced recently at its Analyst Day that it plans to enter the footwear market, saying "We will be in footwear." Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy said her work year-to-date indicates generally well controlled inventory across the domestic athletic industry and said she believes industry competition "should remain rational" during 2019.

Jefferies analyst Randal Konik said his firm's March webscrapes illustrate that Under Armour's percentage of product on discount is flat to down for the twelfth month in a row year-over-yea. Further, the webscrapes show Adidas's (ADDYY) percentage of product on discount is up for the twelfth month in a row year-over-year. Konik also said in March that he continued to prefer shares of Under Armour to Nike given the "misplaced overly negative sentiment" on Under Armour following Nike's quarterly results.

B. Riley FBR analyst Susan Anderson said her firm's annual athletic footwear/apparel survey showed that Under Armour continues to lag behind competitors across basketball, running, and casual footwear and athletic apparel. Respondents placed Under Armour behind brands such as New Balance and Puma, in addition to Nike (NKE) and Adidas, which maintained the number one and two spots in this year's survey.

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