What To Watch In Today's Square Earnings Report

Square (SQ) is scheduled to report results of its second fiscal quarter after the market close on August 1, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm EDT. What to watch for: 

OUTLOOK: During the company's last earnings call, Square affirmed its 2019 adjusted earnings per share outlook of 74c-78c, and raised its 2019 revenue outlook to $2.25B-$2.28B from $2.22B-$2.25B. The company also said it expects second quarter adjusted earnings per share between 14c-16c, and revenue of $545M-$555M. 

SUSTAINABLE REVENUE GROWTH: Earlier this month, Argus analyst Stephen Biggar initiated Square with a Buy rating and a price target of $94, citing the company's "record of technological innovation, strong brand recognition, and an expanding international presence." The analyst believes Square can sustain its revenue growth from increased consumer spending, growing merchant acceptance of its services, rising number of mobile devices using payment apps, and an increase in the average number of transactions per account. On Wednesday, his peer at Nomura Instinet also cautioned against shorting Square into the company's quarterly results. Nomura Instinet analyst Dan Dolev said his proprietary sequential sales growth analysis shows Square's second quarter revenue and third quarter guide "could come nicely ahead of consensus expectations." Further, he expects commentary regarding omni-channel/e-commerce wins to "further elevate the multiple." 

SQUARE CARD: In a research note to investors last month, JPMorgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang argued that the Square Card, the company's business debit card issued to sellers that provides immediate access to their Square balance, is "more lucrative and higher quality than Instant Deposit." Furthermore, he contended that Square Card adoption could grow faster, cannibalizing some business Instant Deposit volume, while generating higher revenue yields. The analyst sees Square Card exiting 2020 at a $10B and $240M annualized purchase volume and revenue rate, respectively. 

CASH APP: On June 28, Nomura Instinet analyst Dan Dolev raised his price target for Square to $100 from $90 following a survey of 260 Cash App users. The survey pointed to a potential boost in sales growth, helped by growing deposit frequency, a price inelastic user base, disruption of the prepaid card industry, and an "impressive" engagement across Cash App's "plethora of services," Dolev said. He estimates improving engagement, continued share gains, and additional price increases could drive up to 20% upside to 2021 revenue growth estimates, and pointed out that 50% of Cash App Instant Deposit respondents expect to increase their usage from the current 2.7 times monthly average.

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