What To Watch In Meta Earnings Report
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Meta Platforms (FB, MVRS), the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Oculus, Novi, and other brands, is scheduled to report results of its fourth fiscal quarter after market close on Wednesday, February 2 with a conference call scheduled for 5 pm ET.
What to watch for:
1. GOOGLE AD GROWTH SEEN AS POSITIVE SIGN: Last quarter, then-Facebook reported earnings of $3.22 per share, beating consensus at that time of $3.19, on revenue of $29.01B that missed the $29.58B consensus forecast. The company said at that time that it expected fourth-quarter revenue to be in a range of $31.5B-$34B, given an outlook that "reflects the significant uncertainty we face in the fourth quarter in light of continued headwinds from Apple's iOS 14 changes, and macroeconomic and COVID-related factors." Facebook added that it expects non-ads revenue to be down year-over-year in the fourth quarter as it laps "the strong launch of Quest 2 during last year's holiday shopping season."
Current consensus EPS and revenue forecasts for Meta's December quarter stand at $3.84 and $33.41B, respectively, according to data provided by Refinitiv.
Following Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) roughly 1% advertising revenue beat and 3% search revenue beat last night, Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak called the search giant's results "a positive read to the health of the overall ad online markets as re-opening continues and e-commerce slows." While he doesn't think Alphabet's report signals a complete "all conditions clear" as much of its outperformance was driven by micro-level retail innovation and some platforms have their own company-level challenges to navigate, he said the report left him "most incrementally constructive" on Meta among the internet ads group.
Following Facebook's last quarterly report, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth lowered the firm's price target on the stock to $390 from $450. Following significant negative news flow and Snap (SNAP) further reducing expectations in the week leading up to the report, Facebook's Q3 results and outlook "were somewhat better than feared," Anmuth told investors at that time. The analyst believes the company is better positioned than Snap to navigate the headwinds from Apple's (AAPL) iOS changes and the macro environment, he added.
Since then, JPMorgan's Anmuth on January 18 lowered the firm's price target on Meta Platforms to $385 from $390 and kept an Overweight rating on the shares. The company's revenue growth will decelerate in 2022 against tough compares, but Meta is making solid progress against Apple's iOS changes, Anmuth said. Further, the analyst is encouraged that Reels can become a major advertising surface. He also believes the company has likely passed 10M active virtual reality units. The stock remains a top pick for Anmuth.
2. FACEBOOK IS NOW META: Facebook said along with its Q3 report: "Starting with our results for the fourth quarter of 2021, we plan to break out Facebook Reality Labs, or FRL, as a separate reporting segment. As we have discussed, we are dedicating significant resources toward our augmented and virtual reality products and services, which are an important part of our work to develop the next generation of online social experiences. The new segment disclosures will provide additional information on the performance of FRL and the investments we are making. Under this reporting structure, we will provide revenue and operating profit for two segments: The first segment, Family of Apps, will include Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and other services. The second segment, Facebook Reality Labs, will include augmented and virtual reality related hardware, software and content. We expect our investment in Facebook Reality Labs to reduce our overall operating profit in 2021 by approximately $10 billion. We are committed to bringing this long-term vision to life and we expect to increase our investments for the next several years. Ahead of the fourth quarter earnings call, we will share additional details about the reporting format of our segmented financials... Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2021, we will implement a new financial reporting segment structure with the following two reportable segments: Family of Apps, or 'FoA,' which includes Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp and other services; and Facebook Reality Labs, or 'FRL,' which includes augmented and virtual reality related consumer hardware, software and content."
Days later, on October 28, Facebook announced a name to change to Meta, stating: "Meta's focus will be to bring the metaverse to life and help people connect, find communities and grow businesses." Facebook said at that time that it intended to start trading under the new stock ticker "MVRS" on December 1.
Since then, Meta announced on November 29 that it will postpone the change to its Class A common stock ticker symbol until Q1 2022. In the interim, Meta's Class A common stock will continue to be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "FB," which has been used since the company's initial public offering in 2012. "Additional details will be provided prior to the new ticker symbol becoming effective in the first quarter of 2022," the company has said.
At the time of the official name change, Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion said he viewed Facebook's name change to Meta as "significant." The move emphasizes the depth of the company's commitment "to the AR/VR initiative and represents a big, bold and risky bet on the future," Champion told investors. He calls this a "commendable ambition" but kept a Neutral rating on the shares. The rebrand likely signals that CEO Mark Zuckerberg will focus on the emergent Reality Labs product and distance himself and the operation from the controversy around social, added Champion, who said he believes "this makes tremendous sense."
3. GLASS WARS: At the time that Facebook rebranded as Meta, the company also said it was working on a new high-end set of "true" AR glasses.
The company also said it was working on multiple new hardware products for VR and the metaverse, including "Project Cambria," a new high-end VR headset that will include more sensors so avatars have more accurate facial and physical movements. The company noted that "Cambria" will utilize "pancake optics" for an improved user experience and said it was starting to work with developers to create experiences for Cambria.
On January 14, Mark Gurman, Takashi Mochizuki and Debby Wu of Bloomberg reported that Apple was considering pushing back the launch of its mixed-reality headset by at least a few months, citing people familiar with the situation. The headset was targeted for an unveiling at Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference in June, followed by a release later in the year, but development challenges related to overheating, cameras and software could push the announcement until the end of 2022 or later, with the product hitting shelves by 2023, sources told Bloomberg. Apple hasn't discussed the headset publicly, but the product has been years in the making and already delayed before, Bloomberg noted.
About a week later, The Verge's Alex Heath reported, citing two people familiar with the project, that Alphabet's (GOOGL) Google unit has recently begun ramping up work on an AR headset, internally codenamed "Project Iris," and hopes to ship the device in 2024. Google's device, which is still early in development "without a clearly defined go-to-market strategy," would use outward-facing cameras to blend computer graphics with a video feed of the real world, similar to expected-to-be-upcoming headsets from Meta and Apple, the report said.
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