Weekly Market Outlook – That’s What Happens When You Play With Fire

Crude Oil, Natural Gas Stockpile Charts

Source: Thomson Reuters

The stockpile figure is an important one to monitor here, but also a tricky one to figure out. Trade tensions along with geopolitical tensions -- on top of the fact that the U.S. is now a net exporter -- only makes any analysis more confusing. Regardless, as it stands right now, crude inventories are in check, and falling. That's fruitful for oil prices, presuming an economic headwind doesn't crimp demand. It likely won't.

Economic Calendar

Source: Briefing.com

This week is going to be a little busier, though not everything on the calendar for this week is all that important.

One item that is important is Tuesday's double-dose of real estate pricing news. Though the numbers are only through June, both the FHFA Housing Price Index and the S&P Case-Shiller Index will be revealed then. Each continues to rise, but each rise is clearly slowing. The pros don't think the pace has changed either. But, if somehow lower interest rates (even before July's rate cut) have inspired new home-buying demand that pushes prices higher, that could be market-moving.

Home Price Charts

Source: Thomson Reuters

Thing is, given the other real estate data through June, an acceleration of prices isn't likely.

Also this week we'll get a major look at how consumers, and investors, are feeling. The Conference Board's consumer confidence reading is due on Tuesday, to be followed by the third and final reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index on Friday. Both are expected to come in lower, extending what's become a long-standing stretch of sideways movement.

Consumer Sentiment Charts

Source: Thomson Reuters

In between, on Thursday, look for the second (of three) readings on Q2's GDP growth. Economists are looking for a slight contraction from the first estimate of 2.1%, to 2.0%. That's still healthy, though at this point not entirely relevant. Much has changed since the end of the second quarter.

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