Weekend Update And Top Current Holdings - 10/30/2016

Before I get into the overall market and my portfolio I first want to say that there is some good news and that there is some bad news. Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. Stocks continued to sell off on Friday and while volume was lower than Thursday’s session it was still above average across the board indicating that large investors are selling. Even worse, stocks started off strong early on and yet again failed to hold on to their early morning gains. This is a pattern of a weak market and not a strong market.

This is why our entire operational model is back to a SELL signal following Friday’s losses. The fact that we are back to a SELL signal following the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq switching to a BUY signal on Monday is quite a statement. To hit an all-time high and immediately reverse once is bad. To do it twice is more bad. To do it three times is very troubling. That is the situation the Nasdaq 100 is in following its most recent failure. The last two times this happened, leading stocks still had solid technical patterns. Now, not so much.

Even more troubling is the Russell 2000. The RUT is hitting more short-term lows despite already being in oversold territory. In strong uptrends once an index gets around oversold levels there is usually a bounce attempt or one has started already before the oscillators get to the lows. This time around there is no bounce. All of the indexes are trading below their 50 RSI (14). Even worse the RUT’s MACD is hitting new lower lows on the short term despite already being in oversold range in a strong uptrend.

Since these lows did not hold and the indexes are trading below their RSI (14) 50 levels it is means that we are operating under a trend change. To see the last time that happened take a look back to January 2016. You will notice that we are at a similar situation that we are at now back on January 5th. We all know what happened next. The market absolutely tanked closing off nearly 20%. This is not to say that this will definitely happen this time around but all of the technical developments suggest that this outcome is much more plausible than us finding the lows here and rallying to new highs in the short term.

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Disclosure: None.

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