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This week is seasonally strong. Historically, there is an 85%+ chance that the week is up. Those are fairly good odds, but very hard to trade in a vacuum. I am glad our models covered our short trade and increased exposure to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 into the down day on Monday.

Volatility as measured by the Volatility Index (VIX) remains depressed, but not yet at new lows given the epic rally in stocks. I have lots of people, especially the bears, bemoaning that the VIX is so low because of manipulation. That literally makes me laugh out loud. It’s so egregiously ignorant that I can’t even argue with them.

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Stocks have been on one of those rare “creeper” trends when the market just inches higher day after day after day. When you have lots of exposure to stocks, it’s just so much fun sitting back and watching. When you’re on the outside looking in, it is very frustrating and painful. All you get are a few days down between 1-2% max before the bulls come right back to work. That’s where we are now and have been.

Eventually, and there always is, something changes and a sharp, swift drop hits when few expect it. Frankly, I thought the late comers would have been punished already. I guess that the masses were just so overly bearish coming in to 2023 and after a 50% rally, not enough threw in the towel. Hence why the market is creeping higher. Sentiment is now greedy, giddy and complacent. It’s bad, but the foundation of the market remains solid. That’s why I do not believe anything more than a 5-9% decline is coming to reset the table.

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