E Top Earnings Trades For 2017?

Joy Global

Joy Global (JOY) gets special mention as our biggest single negative move. The company reported earnings in early March that fell short of the whisper number. Our analysis expected a negative price move of 11% in fifteen trading days...what we got was a positive price move of 18% in that same period. Joy Global takes the top spot for single biggest negative move on an earnings trade.

A number of these companies will remain on our watch list in 2017, and a number of them (we're looking at you Macy's and Lowe's) won't. While they may be good long term investment bets, they aren't good short term earnings trades (for now).

About the Data

We've been collecting earnings expectations and analyzing earnings price reactions for over eighteen years. The whisper number data collected and published by WhisperNumber.com continues to provide greater returns when used as an investment vehicle, and has a greater impact on stock movement than analysts consensus estimates. 

The premise of our analysis is simple: more often than not when a company misses the whisper number the stock is basically 'punished' and will see a decline in price over a one to thirty day period after earnings are released. And on average when a company beats the whisper the stock is rewarded and will see gains over a one to thirty day period after earnings are released.

All trades listed above were from our Whisper Reactors trade alerts service. Not all companies qualify as a Whisper Reactor - only those companies that show a high probability of reacting to the whisper number qualify. Our analysis looks at the past four years of earnings reports and only provides those companies that have a 70% or greater historical probability of reacting to the whisper number as expected (move higher when they beat the whisper, and lower when they miss.)

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