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AST SpaceMobile (Nasdaq: ASTS) pushed meaningfully higher to print a record high of nearly $120 this morning after being picked as a prime contractor for the SHIELD program.

“SHIELD” is part of a broader $151 billion defense framework aimed at protecting against missile, space, and cyber threats – and ASTS is now positioned to bid directly on its future task orders.

The contract serves as a massive seal of approval from the US government for its dual-use satellite technology. Yet, there are reasons to consider “selling” AST SpaceMobile stock on January 16th.

AST SpaceMobile stock is priced for perfection

With a market cap that now sits well above $40 billion, ASTS is no longer a speculative penny stock – it’s priced as if global success is a certainty.

The Nasdaq-listed firm lost 45 cents per share in its latest reported quarter, and is now trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of nearly 1,300x, according to Barchart.

And that’s when it’s in the intermittent service phase only. While the first second-gen BlueBird – Block 2 – satellites are launching, AST SpaceMobile still has just a handful of satellites in orbit.  

Therefore, if there’s even a minor hiccup in the rollout of its next 20 satellites, ASTS stock lacks a fundamental valuation floor, making a 20% mean-reversion correction highly likely.

ASTS shareholders run the risk of massive dilution

To reach the goal of “45-60 satellites” needed for continuous US coverage by the end of this year, AST SpaceMobile requires massive amounts of capital.

To that end, the company resorted to a $1 billion capital raise in late 2025, comprising predominantly convertible senior notes priced at about $96.30 a share.

Since AST SpaceMobile shares are hovering around $115 currently, those note-holders are already “in the money”.

If they choose to convert their debt into equity, it’ll create a massive influx of new shares, diluting the company’s existing investors and creating significant institutional sell pressure on the stock.

ASTS shares may lose the market share war

While AST SpaceMobile has the superior broadband technology (higher speeds, better spectrum), SpaceX/Starlink has the superior logistics machine.

As of writing, Starlink has already launched hundreds of direct-to-cell-enabled satellites. Even if their service is limited to SMS and basic data, they’re already live with T-Mobile.

Plus, Starlink and other competitors are actively lobbying the FCC to limit ASTS’s massive phased array antennas’ power levels, citing potential interference.

This means ASTS shares could win the tech war but lose the market share war if Starlink saturates the global MNO market with a “good enough” service before ASTS achieves continuous coverage.

That’s why Wall Street currently rates AST SpaceMobile at “hold” only – with the mean target of about $80 indicating potential “downside” of more than 30% from here.

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