Three months after inflationary prices increases of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup resumed rising after starting to stabilize in late 2023, we find the rate of inflation has slowed again. Unfortunately, we also find no signs of relief for American consumers as prices for the iconic food product remains elevated.

Our monthly survey of the prices at which an iconic Number 1 size can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup can be purchased by consumers at ten national and regional grocery sellers provides the data to support that observation. Here are the prices we're observing in our mid-July 2024 survey along with how they have changed since our April 2024 report:

• Walmart: $1.26/each, unchanged
• Amazon: $1.26/each, unchanged
• Kroger: $1.39/each, unchanged
• Walgreens: $1.99/each, unchanged
• Target: $1.39/each, unchanged
• CVS: $2.49/each, unchanged
• Albertsons: $1.69/each, unchanged
• Food Lion: $1.25/each, unchanged
• H-E-B: $1.31/each, unchanged
• Meijer: $1.35/each, increase of $0.06 (+4.7%)

The last three months have been characterized by the general absence of discounted pricing for tomato soup as "soup season" comes to its annual end with the rising temperatures of late spring and early summer. In July 2024, we're finding fewer and fewer grocers selling a 10.75 ounce can of Campbell's tomato soup for less than $1.30. The absence of discounts has become more frequent since mid-2021, coinciding with the arrival of sustained inflation in the U.S. economy.

At this time, only three of the ten grocers we track are doing so: Walmart, Amazon, and Food Lion. Meijer, which had held its price below the $1.30 mark has finally raised it higher than that level. For what it's worth, the $1.25 per can price at Food Lion has been discounted from a regular price of $1.58 per can, while Amazon's price fluctuates at the whims of its algorithm, where we have observed the online retailer testing the price at higher levels.

Walmart, for its part, is perhaps the largest seller of Campbell's Soup and its shelf price continues to list its price at $1.26 per can, as can be seen in the photo accompanying this article. That photo shows the 25 June 2024 date that Walmart last printed its shelf price label for Campbell's Tomato Soup.

But how long it will hold that price is an open question. The giant retailer has announced it is adopting electronic price tags that will replace these shelf price labels, which will allow it to change its prices for thousands of goods at a time at the chain's 2,300 stores at the press of a button.

The changes we're observing are significant for U.S. consumers because Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) has produced and sold its condensed tomato soup product in this standard 10.75 fluid ounce can continuously since January 1898. Because of that inherent characteristic, its price is not affected by the marketing trick of shrinkflation, in which producers try to hold their shelf prices steady for consumers in the face of the 2020s persistent inflation by reducing the quantity of goods contained within their packaging. Its price cannot hide the corrosive effects of inflation within the economy, which affects the cost of everything that goes into making it: tomatoes, water, spices, steel (for the can), oil (for transportation), paper (for the label), labor, et cetera.

The following chart tracks the changing price of a 10.75 ounce can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup from January 2000 through July 2024.

The trailing twelve month average price of a single can of Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup is $1.28 in July 2024. This figure is 33% higher than what it was in March 2021 and is consistent with how overall food prices have changed in the U.S. economy since the current era of elevated inflation began.

With soup season still another three months away, we don't expect much change in tomato soup prices during the next three months. We hope retailers will discount prices when it does arrive, but the pattern since 2021 has been such that when they do offer those discounts, they do not last long.

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