Happy Friday! Three countries are now in an interregnum: the USA, Italy, and The Netherlands. We know why the Trump government is defanged. The Dutch one fell because of a scandal in childcare benefits when parents were accused of fraud and not allowed to defend themselves in 2019, and then were forced to repay the money by the socialist ministers who now have resigned. Holland was to have faced elections only in March but in the interim the existing caretaker government is not allowed to take any controversial decisions. The Italians in theory are more used to these matters and the pundits think that despite the resignation of Matteo Renzi's party from the coalition, PM Guiseppe Conte will cobble together a new coalition. The outcome of a new poll would probably favor the right-wing opposition party or lead to no majority at all.

Image Source: Pixabay

So while we are suffering still from Trumpian coup attempts, we are not the worst off. Retail sales fell 0.7% in Dec., whereas analysts expected break-even from last year, the 3^rd drop in a row. As expected, future President Biden offered more stimulus—and the risk of more inflation. To fight the slack, Biden is proposing a $1.9 bn stimulus budget. He also wants to up the minimum wage to $15/hour, double its current level. This led to warnings that inflation will make a comeback.US indexes were down from yesterday. The market fell Thurs. after I posted my blog. US market will shut Martin Luther King day.

North America

*Alimentation Couche-Tard is now fractionally positive despite its offer to take over French supermarket chain Carrefour, mainly because it looks like the need for food security will lead the Macron govt to block the sale. ANCUF trading at 11.5x earnings and paying out ~1% in annual divies is being very heavily traded but right now is up 2.%+. It is among the rare gainers today.

*Mexican Cemex is up 6%. CX Ventures bought a stake in Modulous, a startup in modular design and construction. CX is up 9% in the last 2 days to $5. It was recommended by Barclays with a TP of $7.

Pharma

*Swiss Novartis is up1.5%+. NVS ligelizumab won FDA OK to treat chronic uticaria, a skin disease.

*GlaxoSmithKline rose nearly 1% today. British GSK was initiated at hold today by Deutsche Bank.

*Danish Novo Nordisk NVO was initiated by DB with a buy rating today and rose 1.21%.

*Anglo-Swedish AstraZeneca AZN gained after it was rated buy by DB .

*Canadian Zymeworks reported to the American Society of Clinical Oncology which started today positive data on biliary tract and gastro-intestinal cancers from its Zanidatamab, a bispecific antibody to HER2 cancers. ZYME was picked by Martin Ferera. It fell all the same.

*Eisai is up 0.72%. ESALY's partner in Alzheimer's research, Biogen Idec, reported new good data.

*Thermo Electron will buy the viral vector production arm of Nova-sep for $880 mn (euros 725 mn.). The Franco-Belgian firm it bought produces and purifies molecules. TMO rose 1.7%.

*China approved Beigene's tislelizumab to treat lung cancer (with chemo). BGNE rose 0.27%.

*TEVA rose 3.26%. It will sell generics of Merck's MRK estradiol uterine ring birth control devices.

*Moderna MRNA (my jab) is testing different sizes of vaccine booster shots. 

*Dr. Reddy's (RDY) of India got permission to test the Russian Sputnik 5 virus which may not work as well as claimed.

Oil and materials

*Hoegh LNG Parnership declared a 44¢ annual divvie. HMLP, the pref share we own thanks to Gen. Joe Shaefer, fell 0.0% om the news.

*Royal Dutch Shell B is seeking $2.5 bn for providing carbon storage to the Dutch. RDS-B declared force majeur to closes Forcados refinery It rose despite being rated neutral by French SoGen. But BP plc and Schlumberger Ltd SLB did not.

*Exxon is under investigatation by our SEC for over-valuing its Permian shale assets.

*Chinese electric car and battery firm NIO fell 4.3%, a big loser.

*Swedish Autoliv ALV was rated underweight by Morgan Stanley with a TP of $80. We told you first.

*Cosan, my Brazilian pick for 2021, is down 3.72%. Consolidating CZZ does logistics along the Amazon but the covid-19 outbreak is hurting movements there.

*Antofagasta fell 1.2% on fear of copper glut. ANFGF is Chilean but trades mostly in London.

*Vermilion Energy was retained at neutral but the VET TP was upped to 8.5% by Scotiabank, a potential 56% gain. 

*Platinum metals group Johnson Matthey JMPLY fell 1.23% today.

*SPDR Gold, GLD, is down another 1%.

Tech & Tel

*Finnish Nokia gained 0.95 today in European trading for landing a T-Mobile cybersecurity contract. Its Swedish neighbor Ericsson rose 1.06% for beating NOK in China and the USA, being more neutral. JP Morgan today that ERIC is at risk from a weak $ but still upped its pre-tax forecast.

*Vodafone fell 2.12%. VOD is Britain's telco for the rest of the world.but the EU countries are setting up barriers to its linkages.

*Latina Mercado Libra, MELI, was up a tad in Europe but fell here.

*The ban on Xiaomi will help Qualcom (QCOM) and Israeli-American Tower Semiconductor TSEM. 

Finance

*AIA Asia, AAIGF, gained 1.8% because it can operate outside Hong Kong if necessary.

*Banco Santander fell 2.5% today. SAN.

*State Street STT, the Boston registrar for ADRs in funds, is redeeming $500 mn in preferred shares and plans other buybacks. US bank stocks are all down after they reported overnight, mainly because of fear of inflation.

*Mexican REIT Fibra Uno rose 2.7% in Mexico today. FBASF gains from a strong dollar. It will report on its Q4 results on Feb.25th.

*Standard Life Aberdeen, SLFPY, is our top performer today, up just under 5%. The global fund manager and insurance firm is Scottish. Scotland may return to the EU if a referendum goes right.

*It runs Aberdeen Global Income Fund, FCO, which gained 1.37% today, and Aberdeen Pacific Income Fund, FAX, which fell 1% on earthquakes in Indonesia and politics in Hong Kong.

There also was a bit of schadenfreude at work as Templeton Emerging Markets Income Fund TEI reported very poor negative calls last spring which cost its owners (including us) money.