Aggregate Estimates and Revisions

• 20Q4 earnings are expected to be 3.8% from 19Q4. Excluding the energy sector, the earnings growth estimate is 7.8%.
• Of the 498 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for 20Q4, 79.3% have reported earnings above analyst expectations. This compares to a long-term average of 65% and prior four quarter average of 76%.
• 20Q4 revenue is expected to be 2.7% from 19Q4. Excluding the energy sector, the growth estimate is 6.1%.
• During the week of Mar 29, five S&P 500 companies are expected to report quarterly earnings.

20Q4 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 20Q4 is 3.8%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate improves to 7.8%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $357.9B in 20Q4, compared to share-weighted earnings of $344.9B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 19Q4.

Six of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 19Q4. The materials and financials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the energy sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 19Q4.

The materials sector has the highest earnings growth rate (22.7%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $9.4B in 20Q4, compared to earnings of $7.7B in 19Q4. Nine of the 11 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The copper (1850%) and steel (148.1%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 13.0%.

The financials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (20.4%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $70.2B in 20Q4, compared to earnings of $58.3B in 19Q4. Eleven of the 12 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The investment banking & brokerage (74.6%) and property & casualty insurance (55.5%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 12.6%.

The energy sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-105.0%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $-0.6B in 20Q4, compared to earnings of $12.2B in 19Q4. All five sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The oil & gas refining & marketing (-163.2%) and integrated oil & gas (-112.5%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to -69.4%.

21Q1 Earnings Growth Highlights

The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 21Q1 is 23.9%. If the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate improves to 24.7%. The S&P 500 expects to see share-weighted earnings of $335.8B in 21Q1, compared to share-weighted earnings of $271.1B (based on the year-ago earnings of the current 505 constituents) in 20Q1.

Eight of the 11 sectors in the index expect to see an improvement in earnings relative to 20Q1. The consumer discretionary and financials sectors have the highest earnings growth rates for the quarter, while the industrials sector has the weakest anticipated growth compared to 20Q1.

The consumer discretionary sector has the highest earnings growth rate (98.1%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $19.7B in 21Q1, compared to earnings of $9.9B in 20Q1. Eighteen of the 21 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The specialty stores (4850.2%) and automobile manufacturers (3800.8%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 72.5%.

The financials sector has the second highest earnings growth rate (66.6%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $62.9B in 21Q1, compared to earnings of $37.8B in 20Q1. Ten of the 12 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see higher earnings than a year ago. The consumer finance (525.8%) and diversified banks (148.9%) sub-industries have the highest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate declines to 23.6%.

The industrials sector has the lowest earnings growth rate (-13.0%) of any sector. It is expected to earn $17.4B in 21Q1, compared to earnings of $20.0B in 20Q1. Five of the 17 sub-industries in the sector are anticipated to see lower earnings than a year ago. The airlines (-164.1%) and industrial conglomerates (-13.7%) sub-industries have the lowest earnings growth in the sector. If these sub-industries are removed, the growth rate improves to 14.7%.

Exhibit 1: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions by Sector

Exhibit 2: S&P 500 – Estimate Revisions History

Exhibit 3: All U.S. Companies – Estimate Revisions by Sector

Exhibit 4: All U.S. Companies – Estimate Revisions History