The Return Of The Four Horsemen Of The Nasdaq

During the early stages of the tech boom that buoyed the bull market in the ’90s, there were a group of tech stocks known as the Four Horsemen of the Nasdaq. The group included Cisco Systems (CSCO), Dell Computers, Intel (INTC), and Microsoft (MSFT). If you noticed that I didn’t bold and list the ticker symbol for Dell, that’s because the original company was taken private in 2013 and has only recently resurfaced in a new form, and as a publicly-traded company again—Dell Technologies (DELL).

I hadn’t thought about the Four Horsemen in a number of years until the last few days while I was going through some charts. First, Cisco caught my attention because it has held up relatively well during the rotation out of tech stocks. Then I saw that Intel and Microsoft were also holding up well.

This led me to put together this performance chart of the Four Horsemen. I compared the four stocks to the overall market as well as the Select Sector SPDR Technology ETF (XLK).

Since the beginning of 2021 and through the close on March 11, the S&P 500 is up 4.88%, and the tech sector ETF is up a mere 1.8%. The Four Horsemen have performed much better by most accounts. Microsoft is up 6.86% and Cisco is up 9.93%. The new version of Dell is up 20.92% and Intel is up a whopping 27.85% on a year-to-date basis.

Four Horsemen 2021.jpg

By comparison, the FANG companies are a newer grouping of tech and communication services stocks that include Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOGL). With the exception of Alphabet (+19.85%), the FANG stocks have struggled since the beginning of the year. Facebook is up a meager 0.26%, while Netflix is down 3.27% and Amazon is down 4.4%.

What is the difference in the two groups? The biggest difference is that the Four Horsemen are now more developed companies and aren’t considered growth stocks anymore. That doesn’t mean they aren’t growing earnings and revenue, it’s that they are more mature companies that don’t have the high valuation indicators that the FANG stocks do. The rotation that we have seen recently is more about growth versus value rather than rotating out of tech stocks.

Strong Fundamentals for the Old Guard

It seems odd to call the Four Horsemen “old guard” stocks, but that’s what they are in the tech sector. The companies score well in the Tickeron Fundamental Screener with Dell and Cisco garnering “strong buy” ratings while Intel and Microsoft both have “buy” ratings at this time.

Breaking down the fundamental indicators, we only see two negative marks for the group as a whole. Dell’s Profit vs. Risk Rating is pretty bad at 100 and Intel’s Outlook Rating is low at 70. However, there are plenty of strong indicators to offset those two poor ones. All four stocks score really well in the SMR Rating category and three of the four get strong marks in their Valuation Ratings.

Four Horsemen Tickeron Screener.jpg

Dell and Cisco both get good marks in the Outlook Ratings while Intel and Cisco both get good marks in the Price Growth Rating. Microsoft and Intel get positive marks in the Profit vs. Risk Rating.

If we look at the inputs that go into the SMR Ratings, Microsoft has the most consistently solid numbers across the board. It has a strong ROE, it has the highest profit margin of the bunch, and has been consistent with its revenue growth.

Four Horsemen SMR Inputs.jpg

Dell Technologies has the highest ROE, but the lowest profit margin. Cisco’s ROE and profit margin are strong, but it has seen revenue decline in recent years and last quarter. Intel has solid numbers in the ROE and profit margin areas, but saw revenue decline last quarter. Intel has also been losing market share to Advanced Micro Devices in recent years.

Turning our attention to the valuation measurements we see a lot of additional indicators that are above average with only a few that are worse than average. Microsoft’s P/E ratios are a little high, but not when compared to the tech sector as a whole. The company’s price/book and price/sales ratios are a little higher than the sector averages. Dell Technologies has the only other negative mark in the group with a price/book of 26.87, but all three other metrics are better than average.

Four Horsement Valuation Measurements.jpg

Intel is the only one of the four with three positive readings and without a negative reading. The P/E ratios are below the sector averages and so is the price/book. The price/sales ratio is average. Cisco’s P/E ratios are lower than the average tech stock and its price/book and price/sales ratios are in the average range.

A Blend of Growth and Value Might Be the Answer

Looking at the Four Horsemen versus FANG stocks, the answer for investors might be a blend of growth and value tech stocks. Sure the high-flying growth stocks have been hit with selling over the last few months, but that doesn’t mean they are done being high flyers. They are just out of favor right now and many of them will bounce back.

A balanced portfolio of the Four Horsemen and the FANG stocks would have produced an average gain of 9.75% from the beginning of 2021 through March 11. Over the last two years, the average gain for those eight stocks was 59.1%. During those same time periods, the S&P gained 4.88% and 41.53%, respectively.

Sure, if you just had the Four Horsemen in the tech portion of your portfolio, you would have seen better returns on a YTD basis, but over the last two years, it would have lagged the FANG stocks. Had you had just the FANG stocks, you would have seen great returns up until the last few months.

Should you have just tech stocks in your portfolio? Probably not, but there are a number of factors that you need to take into an account to answer that question for yourself. If tech is part of your portfolio, I suggest taking a balanced approach where part of the segment is tech growth and part is tech value.

Disclaimer: Although our services incorporate historical financial information, past financial performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Moreover, although we believe the ...

more
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.