This recession is horrible isn’t, it? First quarter growth pacing at 2.8%, only 75% of companies have topped earnings, 2019 earnings estimates rising. The S&P 500 is less than 1% off its all-time high.

• It is the recession that keeps on giving. The recession that is surely not coming 2019 – well maybe in fantasyland.

Earnings Are Stronger Than Expected

Earnings for the week continue to be better than expected with 75.3% of the 77 companies in the S&P 500 topping estimates, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indexes. The average since the second quarter of 2012 is 69.7%, with a standard deviation of 4.36%. It makes the current results to this point better than the norm.

(Data for S&P Dow Jones)

Additionally, the number of companies that have missed estimates is at 16.9%, versus an average of 21.2% and a standard deviation of 3.2%.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Data for S&P Dow Jones)

Estimates Tick Higher

The better than expected results to this point have led to a minor uptick in 2019 earnings estimates. Estimates for 2019 increased to $165.02 per share from $164.99 per share last week.

(Click on image to enlarge)

(Data for S&P Dow Jones)

Still Undervalued

It leaves the S&P 500 still trading around 15.6 times 2020 earnings estimates and well below the historical average of about 17 to 18 times one-year forward earnings.

(Click on image to enlarge)

GDPNow

More good news —GDPNow ticked up to 2.8% for the first quarter this past week. The strong GDPNow reading from the Atlanta Fed was a result of the better than expected retail sales in March, which came in at 1.6% versus estimates for 0.8%.  Leading indicators came in at 0.4% versus estimates of 0.03%.

I don’t know - if this what a recession is like, then what was everyone freaking about it?