The Morgan Wallen, “Whiskey Glasses” Stock Market (& Sentiment Results)…

In this week's VideoCast/Podcast, we cover the points made in our article below, plus:

  • Extensive analysis of Gilead's Remdesivir (Good News/Bad News).
  • Commentary around three phase re-opening plan.
  • Earnings Estimates/Revisions Biotech, E&P and S&P 500.

Watch: VideoCast (on your computer/phone):

Length: 00:25:04

Listen: Podcast version (on the run/phone):

Each week I attempt to pair the lyrics from a popular song to the current feeling and sentiment in the stock market. When you look at the data that has come out on the U.S. economy in recent days, one might suggest you need more than Beer Goggles to see the green shoots, you need Whiskey Glasses The salient lyrics from Country Star Morgan Wallens 2018 hit, Whiskey Glasses that describe today's economic news are:

I'ma need some whiskey glasses
Cause I don't wanna see the truth

So lets first lay out the recent bad news, and then work our way to what we may have to look forward to in coming months.

The Bad News:

  • FED BEIGE BOOK: MOST DISTRICTS REPORTED DECLINES IN MANUFACTURING, BUT CITED SIGNIFICANT VARIATION ACROSS INDUSTRIES.
  • FED BEIGE BOOK: HARDEST-HIT INDUSTRIES WERE LEISURE, HOSPITALITY, AND RETAIL.
  • FED BEIGE BOOK: EMPLOYMENT CUTS MOST SEVERE IN RETAIL, LEISURE, AND HOSPITALITY.
  • FED BEIGE BOOK: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY CONTRACTED SHARPLY AND ABRUPTLY ACROSS ALL REGIONS IN THE US AS A RESULT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC.
  • US NAHB Housing Market Index Actual 30 (Forecast 55, Previous 72)

    (Source: Bespoke)
  • US RETAIL SALES MOM ACTUAL -8.7% (FORECAST -8.0%, PREVIOUS -0.5%)
  • US NY Fed Manufacturing Actual -78.20 (Forecast -35.00, Previous -21.50)
  • U.S. MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -5.4 PCT VS FEB +0.5 PCT

The Good News:

On Tuesday evening I went on CGTV America to talk about the stock market, economy and China’s economic recovery to date:

The key point here is that China has been through what we are going through now. Based on the progress we are now making on the health front (new case curve), we may have some of the following economic progress to look forward to (that they are already seeing in China).

The key theme that I discuss in the segment above is a consistent pattern of numbers coming in less than feared, or “better than expected.”  As we get eight weeks past our case curve peak, we may start to see the same (better than expected) theme in our economic numbers – as expectations are rock bottom at this stage.

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Disclaimer: Not investment advice. For educational purposes only: Learn more at HedgeFundTips.com.

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