The Medium-Term Trend For Wednesday, Sept. 20

The medium-term uptrend is intact (downtrends are shaded blue). In the past, one of the indications that the medium-term uptrend may have ended is when the week closes below the low of the prior week... or below the 10-week average. So I am watching for these types of signals.

However, I don't really have much more to offer. The market technicals line up very nicely in favor higher stock prices except that the market seems extended, complacent and overdue for a significant correction. I am not sure how to reconcile this, but it is hardly the first time that we've all seen a market that is determined to defy anyone who is cautious.

I am hanging in there on the long side, but with more cash than usual and with my eyes trained on the indicators that may provide hints of market weakness.

The Leader List

I have changed this spreadsheet. The long-term leaders are blue, the short-term leaders are green and the ETFs showing recent strength are shown at the bottom. The S&P500 is the benchmark. 

Whoa, this is a lot of leaders. The market just keeps grinding higher and broadening out at the same time.




The ECRI index is pointing to weak economic growth in the months ahead.

The long-term outlook is worrisome.
The medium-term trend is up.
The short-term trend is up. On watch for signs of the next short-term downtrend.

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor. My comments above reflect my view of the market, and what I am doing with my accounts. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy, ...

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.


Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.