The Markets May Be Starting To Worry About Rates


If you missed this week’s post on Howard Marks on “speculative manias,” it is a good analysis of what we are dealing with currently.

Importantly, it is essential to remember that portfolio management is not about ALWAYS being right. It is about consistently getting “on base” that wins the game. There isn’t a strategy, discipline, or style that will work 100% of the time.

“The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological.” – Howard Marks

The biggest driver of long-term investment returns is the minimization of psychological investment mistakes. As an investor, it is merely your job to step away from your “emotions” for a moment. Look objectively at the market around you. Is it currently dominated by “greed” or “fear? Your long-term returns will depend not only on how you answer that question but how you manage the inherent risk.

Whether it is Paul Tudor Jones or any other great investor throughout history, they all had one core philosophy in common; the management of investing’s inherent risk.

As many of those found out during the Gamestop saga:

“If you run out of chips, you are out of the game.”


A Conservative Strategy For Long-Term Investors

Model performance is a two-asset model of stocks and bonds relative to the weighting changes made each week in the newsletter. Such is strictly for informational and educational purposes only, and one should not rely on it for any reason. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Use at your own risk and peril.  



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