The Delirious Dozen Of 2017

Accordingly, we believe that HD's days as a 25X PE stock are numbered.

In short, among the Delirious Dozen for 2017, only Apple has a reasonable multiple at 19X. But then again, Apple has been cycling along the flat line for more than three years at its towering sales level of $230 billion and $50 billion of net income.

Yet even today's casino recognizes that given Apple's monumental size, it is virtually impossible to move the growth needle; and that even one delayed or botched product cycle could cause its $50 billion of net income to take a not inconsiderable plunge.

AAPL Net Income (TTM) Chart

In short, aside from the unique case of Apple, the Delirious Dozen of 2017 are set-up for a repeat of the massive 2000-2002 deflation of bottled air. That is, in June 2014 the group (ex-Apple) had a market cap of $1.1 trillion, representing 34X its combined net income of $32 billion.

During the 40 months since then, the group's market cap has nearly tripled to $3.2 trillion, while its net income has climbed to $65 billion. Consequently, the group's PE multiple has now soared to 49X or to nearly the nosebleed level that pertained among the previous group of high flyers back in April 2000.

Needless to say, the business cycle has not been abolished and this expansion is now 101 months old. In fact, the chart below suggests it may be reaching its "sell-by" date.

But here's the thing. The bottled air resident among the Delirious Dozen of 2017 is where all the top of the bubble mania has again gotten concentrated.

So when the Black Swan, Orange Swan or Red Swan, as the case may be, finally arrives and they begin to sell AMZN, FB, TSLA or CRM----look out below.

That's where Wall Street's next central bank fueled bloodbath is hiding in plain sight.

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Disclosure: None.

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