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Introduction

I wrote last week (see here) that "MSO cannabis stocks have surged so far in July, in general, thanks to a potent mix of regulatory optimism and investor momentum" but the bloom is now off the rose (i.e. the enthusiasm has faded). During the week-ending July 18th the 6 largest such stocks in our American Cannabis MSO Stocks Portfolio declined 13.3% due to a mix of regulatory uncertainty, weak financials, and fading investor optimism

Our American Cannabis MSO Stocks Portfolio

Below is a recap of how the 6 largest cap vertically integrated multi-state operator (MSOs) stocks of American cannabis companies performed last week-ending July 18th, in ascending order, MTD, and the reasons for the stock price changes:

1. Cresco (CRLBF): down 19.7% w/e July 18th, up 5.6% MTD
   • A Major Reason for Stock Price Change:
     • Shrinking Investor Confidence:  Analysts have downgraded earnings estimates for 2026 and 2027, and the stock has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), reflecting limited upside potential
2. Verano (VRNOF): down 15.4% w/e July 18th, up 9.1% MTD
   • A Major Reason for Stock Price Change:
     • No Major Catalysts: Verano didn’t release any earnings or major operational updates during the week, leaving the stock exposed to macro sentiment and technical selling.
3. Green Thumb (GTBIF): down 14.3% w/e July 18th, up 2.0% MTD
   • A Major Reason for Stock Price Change:
     • Profit-Taking: GTIBF had rallied sharply in early July, gaining over 25% between July 1–11.so the drop may reflect investors locking in gains, especially ahead of Q2 earnings on August 6.
4. Curaleaf (CURLF): down 12.2% w/e July 18th, up 16.8% MTD
   • A Major Reason for Stock Price Change:
     • Technical Breakdown: CURLF broke below its 50-day moving average midweek, triggering technical selling and stop-loss orders. Trading volume also dropped significantly, suggesting weak demand and reduced momentum.
5. Trulieve (TCNNF): down 11.6% w/e July 18th, up 6.2% MTD
   • A Major Reason for Stock Price Change:
     • Profit-Taking: TCNNF had rallied over 30% between July 1–11, driven by optimism around cannabis reform and ESG-focused partnerships so the drop may reflect investors locking in gains ahead of Q2 earnings on August 6.
6. TerrAscend (TSNDF): down 5.3% w/e July 18th, up 22.2% MTD
   • A Major Reason for Stock Price Change:
     • CFO Departure: On July 18, Chief Financial Officer Keith Stauffer officially exited the company to pursue a new opportunity outside the cannabis industry and this transition may have amplified concerns about execution risk heading into Q2 earnings on August 7.

In Summary

Our American Cannabis MSO Stocks Portfolio declined 13.3% week-ending July 18th but remains up 5.7% MTD given the substantial increase the previous week.

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