Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives expects Tesla (TSLA) to "handily exceed" expectations when the electric carmaker releases its fourth-quarter delivery numbers. Voicing a similar opinion, Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy said he sees the company delivering about 183,000 vehicles in the quarter, putting Tesla at 502,000 for 2020 and allowing it to achieve its target of 500,000 deliveries this year. While GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson also believes fourth-quarter deliveries will exceed expectations, the analyst told investors that he sees signs of "Bernie Madoff's impossibly consistent performance" given Tesla's ability to keep margins flat despite "aggressive" price cuts.

'HANDILY EXCEED' DELIVERY EXPECTATIONS: Based on his initial analysis of demand and the delivery trajectory globally for Tesla in the fourth quarter, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives noted that it appears the company will likely "handily exceed" Street and internal expectations. With 180,000 for the fourth quarter the line in the sand, the analyst believes that 190,000-200,000 is well within reach. As such, this would enable Tesla to achieve its 500,000 delivery number for the year, which was not even on the map for the Street going back to the late spring/early summer timeframe, Ives added. While there are some logistics speed bumps throughout Europe that could derail a number of deliveries in the next few days, the analyst argued that the theme of the Tesla story and overall global EV demand continues to be around demand coming out of China. He has a Neutral rating and a $715 price target on the shares.

Also commenting on the upcoming delivery number release, Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy told investors that he predicts Tesla will deliver about 183,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, which is above the sell-side consensus of 163,000 deliveries and the likely buy-side consensus of about 175,000 to 180,000 deliveries. Such a figure would put Tesla at 502,000 for 2020 and allow the company to achieve its target of 500,000 deliveries this year, noted Levy. While his expectation would require a record month of December for Tesla, Levy believes this is feasible given Tesla's "typical quarter-end wave." Levy kept a Neutral rating and $400 price target on Tesla shares.

'BERNIE MADOFF' SIGNS: GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson also expects Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries to come in at 183,646, above the consensus estimate of 174,000. Tesla has 25,000 in inventory and production capacity of 840,000 cars per year currently, so it should be able to beat its fourth-quarter guidance of 181,650, Johnson told investors in a research note. The analyst, however, sees signs of "Bernie Madoff's impossibly consistent performance" given Tesla's ability to keep margins flat despite "aggressive" price cuts. Johnson believes there is "quantitative proof" that the company's reported automotive margins "may exhibit aggressive accounting methods." Tesla does not have the long-term, high-volume relationships with vendors that lets it consistently get the best parts pricing, Johnson contended. The analyst kept a Sell rating on Tesla with a $40 price target.

PRICE ACTION: In morning trading, shares of Tesla have gained over 1% to $674.81.