Technicians Are Unanimously Bullish; COUP & SFIX Earnings; Pulling No Punches

SFIX reported a 10% increase in revenue and 9 cents EPS and the stock jumped about 1/3 to ~$48 in the after hours. How do you pay $48 for a company that just earned 9 cents in their most recent quarter? Crazy!

It’s still too damn easy out here but what are we going to do? Complain about the Fed and short? (Aaron Jackson Stocktwits, December 7, 1:22pm)

I’m almost certain this is a subtweet of me as my morning email yesterday included a section “The Shorting Opportunity of a Lifetime” and I tweeted excerpts from James Mackintosh’s “Thank the Fed for This Year’s Run in the Stock Market” (WSJ, December 7) mid morning.

If you read my nuanced and many sided take on why I believe this is “the shorting opportunity of a lifetime” you wouldn’t mistake it for “complaining” about the Fed and emotionally shorting as a result. Read Aaron’s post “Investors are bulled up. For good reasons” (December 6) and you tell me whose is of what intellectual caliber.

What great contrarians understand is the broad consensus of bullish breadth and sentiment alone is not bearish – Aaron Jackson, “Investors are bulled up. For good reasons” (12/6)

Of course you shouldn’t be bearish now based on technicals alone. That’s a strawman, however. All of the technicians are unanimously bullish. Investors that are bearish like me look at things from different perspectives like fundamental or macro.

In my case, it’s all three – plus many other disciplines like history and psychology that I bring to bear. Obviously technicals plays a big role in what I do as evidenced by the many technical charts I include in every morning email. I just did fundamental analysis on COUP and SFIX, which I do almost everyday as well. And I am well aware of the role the Fed is playing in the current bull move as well the whole bull market that began in 2009. It’s because of my strong background in Austrian Economics, including the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle, that I was able to spot, short and profit from the housing bubble and subsequent bust in the mid-to-late-2000s and why I can see that we are in an even bigger bubble today. As a pure technician, like Aaron, who was probably still in college when The Great Recession struck, the only thing you understand is what the market believes since you make no distinction between perception and reality, price and value. All great investors, who sometimes must be contrarians, make that distinction.

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