Technical Report For Saturday, March 13

The good news is:

  • All of the major indices except the NASDAQ composite (OTC) closed at all time highs last Friday. 

The Negatives

After a straight up week the market is, short term, overbought.

The Positives

The bottom is in.  New lows disappeared last week and the secondaries led the way up.


The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NYNL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so DECREASING numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good)  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month.

The bottom is in.

 

The next chart is similar to the first one except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

Ditto.

 

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. 

NY NH confirmed the SPX new high; higher prices ahead.

 

The next chart is similar to the first one except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NH, in green, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

Not as pretty as the chart above, but the numbers are HUGE.

 

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.

NY HL Ratio fell at 95% is very strong.

 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

OTC HL Ratio also rose above 90%.


Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the third Friday of March during the first year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period. 

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