Technical Market Report For Saturday, April 10

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The good news is the S&P 500 (SPX) closed at an all time high last Friday and new lows remain insignificant. 

The Negatives

New highs are much lower than they were at the index highs a few weeks ago, but they are still at comfortably high levels.

The first chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month. 

There is a slight improvement here, but clearly a non confirmation.

The next chart is similar to the first one except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH, in green, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

OTC NH is NOT confirming the rally.

New highs will need to recover if this rally is to be significantly extended.

The Positives

The strongest indication the recent pull back is over is the rapid decline in the number of new lows.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so DECREASING numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).

NY NL continued to move upward; risk is limited.

The next chart is similar to the previous one except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

Ditto the previous chart.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.

NY HL Ratio rose to a very strong 95%.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

OTC HL Ratio finished the week at a comfortable 82%.

Seasonality

Next week includes the five trading days prior to the third Friday of April during the first year of the Presidential Cycle.  The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.  The program counts Fridays and with Good Friday usually falling in April various years are often off by a week.

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