Technical Market Report For July 4

Report for the week before the second Friday of July.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday to second Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 4 (PY4)

 Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals

 1964-4 0.05% 0.15% 0.22% 0.20% 0.37% 0.98%

 1968-4-0.06% 0.19% 0.00%-0.20%-0.28%-0.35%

 1972-4-0.49%-0.29%-0.28%-0.83% 0.27%-1.62%

 1976-4 0.00%-0.29%-0.02% 0.21% 0.76% 0.66%

 1980-4 1.03% 0.32% 0.03% 0.94% 0.78% 3.10%

 1984-4 0.11%-0.31%-0.61%-0.26% 0.19%-0.87%

 1988-4 0.00% 0.36%-0.17%-0.01%-0.28%-0.09%

 1992-4 0.43% 0.88% 0.05% 0.13%-0.98% 0.49%

 1996-4-0.83% 0.42%-1.06%-3.08%-0.25%-4.80%

 Avg 0.19% 0.33%-0.35%-0.45%-0.11%-0.43%

 2000-4-1.07%-0.60% 3.62% 1.84% 1.71% 5.50%

 2004-4 0.00%-2.15% 0.13%-1.56% 0.57%-3.01%

 2008-4-1.17% 0.13% 3.12% 1.20%-1.28% 2.00%

 2012-4-0.19%-1.00%-0.49%-0.75% 1.48%-0.97%

 2016-4 0.00%-0.82% 0.75% 0.36% 1.64% 1.94%

 Avg -0.81%-0.89% 1.43% 0.22% 0.82% 1.09%

OTC summary for PY4 1964 - 2016 

 Avg -0.22%-0.22% 0.41%-0.13% 0.33% 0.21%

 Win% 40% 50% 54% 50% 64% 50%

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2019

 Avg0.10%-0.10% 0.35% 0.32% 0.44% 1.07%

 Win% 68% 53% 61% 67% 77% 70%

SPX PY4

 Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals

 1956-4 0.44% 0.60% 0.31%-0.23% 0.29% 1.41%

 1960-4 0.00%-0.07%-0.14% 0.53% 0.24% 0.56%

 1964-4-0.06%-0.30% 0.34% 0.36% 0.44% 0.78%

 1968-4-0.08%-0.55% 0.00%-0.26%-0.97%-1.85%

 1972-4-0.53%-0.73%-0.40%-0.57% 0.49%-1.75%

 1976-4 0.00%-0.55% 0.28% 0.14% 0.96% 0.84%

 Avg -0.22%-0.44% 0.02% 0.04% 0.23%-0.28%

 1980-4 1.84%-0.59% 0.28% 1.51% 0.49% 3.53%

 1984-4 0.74%-0.31%-1.52%-0.35% 0.57%-0.88%

 1988-4 0.00% 1.48%-1.37%-0.09%-0.65%-0.63%

 1992-4 0.06% 0.68%-0.14% 0.11%-0.46% 0.24%

 1996-4-0.75% 0.34% 0.20%-1.59% 0.08%-1.71%

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