Technical Market Report For July 25

The good news is new lows continue at minimal levels. But the negatives include narrow leadership; there have been very few new highs considering the indices are near their all time highs.

The first chart covers the past six months showing the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green.Dashed vertical lines have been drawn of the 1st trading day of each month.

The recent index high was unconfirmed both long and short term by OTC NH.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it covers the past 5 years and dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each year.  

The current OTC NH non confirmation is extreme.

The next chart is similar to the first one except it shows the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and NY NH, in green has been calculated with NYSE data.

Similar to the first chart but worse.

The next chart is similar to the 2nd one except it shows the SPX in red and NY NH has been calculated with NYSE data.

Also similar, but worse.

The Positives

The number of new lows has been insignificant.

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue.Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral, level.

NY HL Ratio remained above 90%, very strong. 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL Ratio, in red has been calculated with NASDAQ data.

OTC HL Ratio declined a little to a strong 78%.


Seasonality

Next week includes the last five trading days of July during the fourth year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2019 while SPX data runs from 1928 to 2019.There are summaries for both the fourth year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. 

1 2 3 4
View single page >> |
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience. Users' ratings are only visible to themselves.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.