An expensive takeover is a risky move for a new chief executive. Kevin Hourican, who has been in charge of food distributor Sysco (SYY) for just over a month, should take heed as he ponders a deal for German wholesaler Metro. The 4 billion euro target has already rebuffed one pricey offer. And, given Europe’s growth prospects are shaky, Hourican would be better off finding a different meal.

A European expansion looks like an odd move for Hourican. True, with Metro, Sysco would acquire a wholesale business, an area it has been trying to get into, and a network that caters for cafes and restaurants into which it could sell its produce. Yet the European food sector is growing more slowly and is less profitable than North America. Metro is expected to grow sales by just 2% annually over the next two years, according to Refinitiv.

Sysco’s international expansion has hardly been a glowing success. Sales at Sysco’s International Foodservice Operations, which includes its European unit, declined in the year ending June 2019, and it only managed to convert a little over 1% of sales into operating profit. Its U.S. business, by contrast, ramped up sales by over 4% last year to $41 billion, and turned nearly 8% of that into operating income.

Hourican may have to contend with some tricky shareholders. The German wholesaler has just emerged from a tussle with its largest shareholder, Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky, who offered 16 euros a share in June last year. Kretinsky, who owns just under 30% of Metro, and the board, are unlikely to accept anything less than that.

Even at that price, the return for Sysco looks unappetising. At 16 euros a share, Metro’s equity would be worth just under 6 billion euros and its enterprise value around 8 billion euros. Assume Metro can deliver the 732 million euros of operating profit in 2022 that analysts are forecasting, according to Refinitiv. Take off tax of around 30%, and the return on invested capital would be a meagre 6%. Hourican is unlikely to be able to wring out many cost savings, given the lack of overlap.

The rapidly spreading coronavirus, which has led to evacuations of schools in Europe, is another worry. That could damage consumer spending and disrupt supply chains. Gobbling up small but healthier American businesses may be a safer option for Hourican.