Stocks Rise On January 17 And Are Approaching The Outer Limits

Stocks finished January 17 higher again, but the boundaries and the distance left to travel given the projected rise are now near their limits.

I have taken a look at the current trends in the S&P, and the S&P 500 (SPY) index appears to be returning to a path laid out before the fourth quarter 2018 meltdown. The channel started in February 2016, and it has been something I have tracked for almost four years now, and to some degree, I had stopped talking about it because, for a time, it became irrelevant. But it seems there is a reversion of sorts taking place, and it has become relevant again.

Again this chart would suggest that over the longer-term, the index is likely to continue to climb. Perhaps even climbing to levels well beyond 3,500 towards 3,600.

Additionally, you can see in the RSI panel, the trend of the blue lines. We can see the double bottom in RSI that was created in 2018. It marked a change in the longer-term direction of the index from falling momentum to rising momentum. In this case, it likely suggests to me that we still in the relatively early stage of a longer-term momentum shift higher, as these trends tend to last about two years from what I can tell.

S&P 500, spy

However, the index continues to be overbought and currently does need to pull back some. We have been tracking a short-term trading channel since the beginning of October, and at this point, we are at the upper end of the channel, and it would suggest a reversion back to the lower end, placing the index in a range of 3216 to 3250.

There is also the rising wedge pattern to contend with, which I believe is in the bump-out phase.

Additionally, the RSI is once again at overbought levels around 76.5.

And, I also noted some more buying of VIX calls today, which I spoke about in the premium morning commentary, never miss an update- Options Ex Ahead Of 3-Day Weekend- Morning Commentary 1.17.20

Again, long-term trends are higher. Short-term meaning next few days to weeks is likely lower.

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Disclaimer: This article is my opinion and expresses my views. Those views can change at a moment's notice when the market changes. I am not right all the time and I do not expect to be. I ...

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