Spring 2021 Snapshot Of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings

Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter's earnings.

Standard and Poor's newest forecast projects a full earnings recovery for the index' earnings per share by June 2021. In addition, S&P is projecting much more robust earnings growth than they were three months ago.

The more robust earnings growth can best be seen in the trailing year earnings per share projected for December 2021. Three months ago, S&P anticipated that figure would be $153.86 per share. Its 12 May 2021 projection indicates the year end earnings figure will reach $174.87 per share.

If that outcome is realized, it would put the S&P 500's trailing twelve month earnings per share nearly back on the trajectory that S&P projected back in February 2020, before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic recession hammered corporate earnings in the U.S. (SPX, SPY)

Reference

Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 12 May 2021. Accessed 14 May 2021. (As a bonus for this edition, if you follow the link to the spreadsheet before his next update, you'll find Howard's photo celebrating the arrival of springtime in New York City.)

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