Some Retailers Will Be Hurt By The Economic Recovery

Declining sales will come when people buy ahead of their normal schedule. Most households don’t formally schedule purchases, they do have a sense of a schedule. The backyard gazebo was a “someday idea” until free time and money motivated a trip to the building supply store.

That sector enjoyed a 13% sales gain. But families only need so many tiki bars, fences, and paint jobs. When people can travel again, look for home improvements to decline, at least for a year if not two or three.

Also on their way down are sporting goods and related products. Boats and bicycles have both been on back-order, as people with money and limited travel opportunities took their recreation locally, on bike paths, back roads, rivers, and lakes.

This sector also includes treadmills and weights, ideal for a person whose gym has closed. Many related products won’t be sold next year in the same volume as 2020 because they are durable goods, and the high volume sold in 2020 need not be replaced in the coming years.

Some things go up and then up again, but others come down, in retailing as elsewhere in life.

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