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The economic recovery that arises from the COVID-19 vaccination will bring relief to some retailers, but what about those whose sales grew during the pandemic? Will they enjoy permanently higher sales, or return to normal, or will they learn that their 2020 sales gains were simply borrowing from the future?

The key to understanding future retail sales is understanding what has permanently changed in consumer behavior and what has not. Different sectors will have widely varying results, but for different reasons. This article focuses on the retail sectors that grew during the pandemic, looking at which will see their good fortunes continue and which will weaken in the coming years.

About half of the detailed sectors covered by the Census Bureau’s Monthly Retail Trade Report had increased sales from February through October, 2020, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Only one is likely to continue with increased sales, five will return to normal sales, and a couple will suffer in the future.

The one sector that will continue with strong sales is electronic commerce, such as Amazon (AMZN). A little bit of return to brick-and-mortar retail will occur as people feel more confident going to stores, but many people who had not previously been heavy online shoppers have come to embrace the new way of buying, while long-time online buyers have expanded the range of goods they will buy online to include socks, underwear, and toilet paper.

Sectors that will return to normal begin with car dealers, whose sales rose 9.3% from February through October, seasonally adjusted. That may seem like people using stimulus checks to buy cars in 2020 that they otherwise would have purchased in 2021, but that’s not the case.

Unit sales of cars and light trucks were slightly lower in October than February. People bought larger, more expensive cars. Cheap gasoline along with cash-in-pocket boosted willingness to spend more per car.

Auto parts, accessories, and tire stores will also return to normal. Even though people were driving less, they had money to spend on their cars. Personal income actually rose in the recession because of government aid.

Still, more cash stayed in bank accounts because people could not go out to restaurants or on vacations. Some people had time to work on their own cars rather than have them serviced, but others used their extra cash to spruce up their rigs. After the economic recovery, sales in this sector will return to normal.

Grocery stores and liquor stores are two other sectors that will return to normal. When people could not eat out as much, they bought food to cook at home— or take-out from a grocery store. Take-out options are higher cost, higher profit margin products for stores. The same holds true of liquor stores, which had really strong gains during the pandemic. People will probably drink less in normal times, and they’ll do more of their drinking in bars and restaurants.

Also returning to normal will be drug stores. Some of their sales during lockdowns were probably goods that could not be purchased elsewhere. Cosmetics company Boscia announced in October that it was selling its products in Walgreens. As department stores closed, either from government orders or their own bankruptcies, drug stores attracted those shopping for cosmetics.

Warehouse clubs (such as Costco (COST) and Sam’s) will also return to normal. Their sales growth from February through October was 6%, whereas 3% would have been about normal. Some of their business in the spring came because as food merchants, they were able to stay open even as other stores were forced to close.

For example, in some areas electronics stores were closed, but one could buy a television at the warehouse club. However, these stores’ fall sales were strong despite most other stores being open. Perhaps some people got used to using the club stores, and others wanted to buy larger quantities to reduce the number of shopping trips. Look for a return to normal for this category.

Declining sales will come when people buy ahead of their normal schedule. Most households don’t formally schedule purchases, they do have a sense of a schedule. The backyard gazebo was a “someday idea” until free time and money motivated a trip to the building supply store.

That sector enjoyed a 13% sales gain. But families only need so many tiki bars, fences, and paint jobs. When people can travel again, look for home improvements to decline, at least for a year if not two or three.

Also on their way down are sporting goods and related products. Boats and bicycles have both been on back-order, as people with money and limited travel opportunities took their recreation locally, on bike paths, back roads, rivers, and lakes.

This sector also includes treadmills and weights, ideal for a person whose gym has closed. Many related products won’t be sold next year in the same volume as 2020 because they are durable goods, and the high volume sold in 2020 need not be replaced in the coming years.

Some things go up and then up again, but others come down, in retailing as elsewhere in life.