Siegel On Why Stocks Could Rise 30%

 

Conclusion

For Jeremy Siegel, making wild predictions about markets has no consequence. If he is wrong, he makes another prediction to cover for the first. However, for you, following such a prediction can have a devastating impact on your short- and long-term financial goals.

The reality is that markets are pushing “rarified air.” It is unlikely that corporate earnings will achieve the lofty goals set out by analysts currently. It is also very probable that economic growth may be weaker than expected. Of course, these are just “concerns” of an overvalued, extended, and overly bullish market.

Sure, the current cyclical bull market could rise another 30%.

Momentum-driven markets are hard to kill in the latter stages, particularly as exuberance builds. However, they do eventually end.

Will the market likely be higher in another decade from now? Maybe. However, if interest rates or inflation rise sharply, the economy moves through a normal recessionary cycle, or if Jack Bogle is correctthings could be much more disappointing. As Seth Klarman from Baupost Capital once stated:

“Can we say when it will end? No. Can we say that it will end? Yes. And when it ends and the trend reverses, here is what we can say for sure. Few will be ready. Few will be prepared.”

We saw much of the same mainstream analysis at the peak of the markets in 1999 and again in 2007. New valuation metrics, IPO’s of negligible companies, valuation dismissals as “this time was different,” and a building exuberance were common themes. Unfortunately, the outcomes were always the same.

“History repeats itself all the time on Wall Street”  – Edwin Lefevre

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